Statistical Analysis. Humor. Knicks.

Sunday, October 26, 2014

2010 Finals Game Thread

Lots of good previews of the Finals online. Among my favorites are from Basketball-Prospectus (the first one and a second one noting the differences between now & 2008), John Hollinger (who takes the Lakers), and Kelly Dwyer’s lightning round chat (his answers just fly in).

In any case I thought I would open this up for the readers to discuss the series.

23 comments on “2010 Finals Game Thread

  1. Owen

    I hate Mark Jackson…

    And yes, Kelly Dwyer’s chats are something special, I don’t know how he manages to be that quick…

  2. Mike Kurylo Post author

    Really nobody? Maybe the next game thread will be USA vs ENG? ;-)

    My favorite aspect of tonight? Mark Jackson saying “Derek Fisher is a winner, he just knows how to win.”

    Yeah hang on the coattails of Shaq, Phil Jackson, Kobe Bryant, etc.

    Jackson then lobbied for Fisher’s number to be retired, to which Stan Van Gundy replied that a handful of players should have their numbers to be retired (Horry, Scott, etc.)

    For all that I don’t like about D’Antoni, I’m so glad that Mark Jackson is not the Knicks coach.

  3. Owen

    There is actually some entertainment value in listening to how idiotic Jackson is. He might be the new Joe Morgan.

    This is a disappointing stinker, I expected more.

    Via WOW, but this is a very nice piece by Dan Ariely, whose book I read a while back. It purports to be about corporate bonuses, but really its about more important stuff, clutch performance in basketball.

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/dan-ariely/the-irrational-side-of-co_b_592165.html

    Here is a bit of it…

    We found that the non-clutch players scored more or less the same in the low-stress and high-stress moments, whereas there was actually a substantial improvement for clutch players during the last five minutes of the games. So far it looked good for the clutch players and, by analogy, the bankers, as it seemed that some highly qualified people could, in fact, perform better under pressure.

    But — and I’m sure you expected a “but” — there are two ways to gain more points in the last five minutes of the game. An NBA clutch player can either improve his percentage success (which would indicate a sharpening of performance) or shoot more often with the same percentage (which suggests no improvement in skill but rather a change in the number of attempts). So we looked separately at whether the clutch players actually shot better or just more often. As it turned out, the clutch players did not improve their skill; they just tried many more times. Their field goal percentage did not increase in the last five minutes (meaning that their shots were no more accurate); neither was it the case that non- clutch players got worse.

    etc, etc, etc…

  4. GAx

    I posted this elsewhere, but I used to think whenever Dr. Jack Ramsey would be calling the game and put a little faux-growl in for emphasis it was a bit forced and could be distracting.

    Then Mark Jackson got a job.

    From that squinty, too-cool affected voice he uses on those MSG specials during interviews to the ridiculous cliche talking points and terrible mama thar’ goes that man and other shit he keeps going back to, only Reggie Miller is worse and I’m relieved he was never hired as a coach. Only Kenny Smith and Reggie Miller are worse announcers.

    Owen: I love studies like those that look at staples of sports mentality like momentum and the clutch factor, but in the end of this particular one I guess we’re left with where we started with a little added illumination: That you still want your best players taking the last and most important shots of the game.

  5. d-mar

    Jackson is awful, another of his favorite intros is: “…what Derek Fisher knows…” Too bad we can’t have Doug Collins, IMO the most insightful color guy out there. And now he’s coaching again.

    Regarding the actual game, you never want to draw any conclusions after a game 1, but the difference between this year and 2008 is Artest’s D on Pierce and Gasol really manning up. Plus, KG played really soft. When Rondo isn’t doing his thing, the C’s have a lot of trouble scoring. I think Game 2 is the series for the C’s, I just don’t see them winning 3 in a row at home.

  6. Ted Nelson

    LeBron wants Nike to make a commemorative sneaker for every stop on his recruiting tour… As egomaniacal as that is… It may bode well for the Knicks, in that LeBron the businessman could win out over LeBron the hometown hero and LeBron the basketball player. If business is the #1 priority, gotta go with NYC and the Knicks (hometown hero has to go Cavs, and every team can make an argument that they’re the right basketball decision). He could always do his tour and then return to Cleveland, but making this big a deal out of the recuiting tour suggests to me he’s open to leaving.

  7. Ted Nelson

    @4

    “I guess we’re left with where we started with a little added illumination: That you still want your best players taking the last and most important shots of the game.”

    I took the exact opposite conslusion away. The study says that the best player/”clutch player” does not perform any better in the clutch, and that the “less clutch player” does not perform any worse. In fact, it says that by having the “clutch player” force up shots his efficiency decreases. I do believe there are exceptions to the rule, MJ being an obvious example that I think most of us can agree you let do what he wanted… shoot, pass, whatever. If you don’t have one of those players, though, it may be more efficient to spread the ball just like you would under any circumstances. Isiah used to always call iso plays for Crawford in last shot situations and Crawford almost never made the shot, but whenever Isiah would go with something more creative it seemed to work.

  8. Ted Nelson

    “In fact, it says that by having the “clutch player” force up shots his efficiency decreases.”

    Ok, it didn’t go that far now that I re-read it.

  9. ess-dog

    Ted,

    I saw the shoe tour think and frankly, it disgusted me. It all makes sense now: He’s interested in ‘Chicago’. Then suddenly, he really likes the Clippers. Dallas, Miami and of course New York are all in play. Do you get it yet? Every major media market in the US will be on the “Lebron tour.”
    In my mind, his best media campaign would be a heavily produced “summer tour” of Lebron. Young man travels the country and then ends up back in his hometown, just a good ‘ol hometown boy. Awww…
    Well I for one really hope we don’t cow tow to this guy. Especially if it holds up the process for the rest of free agency.
    I would be happy to get the #2 and Brand for Curry and Chandler and go with this team instead: Douglas, Turner, Gallo, Lee (or Amare), Brand.
    Enough is enough.

  10. jaddddd1

    I agree about the shoe tour. Just looks like he cares more about his free agency and selling shoes than he did about games 5 and 6 of the Boston series. He’s doing the same thing A-Rod did when he opted out the day the World Series started and everyone called him an asshole for upstaging the game (see: Larry King interview, going on Jimmy Kimmel right before game 1, talking about the summit and calling himself the “ringleader”, declaring he’s not going to talk about free agency and then talking about it non-stop) The guy is the best player in the league, that should be enough. His season is over, the basketball world should be focused on Lakers/Celtics but he’s got to say something new every day. He’s far too concerned with himself and his free agency. David Stern actually said it best when he said all of these guys who are free agents should watch the finals and see how to build a team and win, because none of them (except Wade) has really won anything yet in their careers.

  11. Ted Nelson

    I could really care less how much of an egomaniac LeBron is… I take that as a given. If the Knicks had no inside information that LeBron’s not coming to NY and just pulled out of the LeBron race before it even starts because he’s trying to sell shoes……… No chance in hell I would remain a Knicks fan after that. My devotion to the team runs very deep, but that would be the dumbest thing ever. Evan Turner has a 0% chance of being as good as LeBron. 0%. I would start “Hire Isiah” chants if that happened.

    I don’t see why there’s any better chance that the act of having a summer tour means he’s going to end up in Cleveland. I think Cleveland has the best chance of any team in the first place (and LeBron has said as much), but going on a summer tour and ending up in the best city in the country is just as good a story as ending up back in his podunk city. (And I live in northeastern Ohio at the moment.)

    There were rumors LeBron liked Chicago. Most of them were nothing more than “analysts” saying that would be the best basketball situation for him because they have a hard-on for Derrick Rose. Just because LeBron ends up in the news through “leaked” rumors and analysts speculation doesn’t mean he’s inviting the attention on himself. His HS games were televised nationally for christ’s sake. He doesn’t have to look for attention, it looks for him.

    Again, if he’s worried about the media and his business future… the ONLY place to go is NYC. The only place. If he ends up back in Cleveland it’s not going to be because he wants the national media’s attention.

  12. ess-dog

    Well Danny Ferry’s out now. I think that makes it even a little less likely that he goes back to Cleveland. And yes, the big advantage for New York is being the media capital of the world (and it appears Lebron likes media.)
    And ALL of the players fighting for the championship right now (except possibly Kobe) also all have a 0% chance of being as good as Lebron… that’s the thing, you need more than one guy.
    I’m not saying don’t go after Lebron, but I think you make it clear: hey you’re one of 5 guys on the court, we like you, but NYC has a lot to offer and if you’re not interested, fine, we’ll move on. I think the aura of exceedingly special treatment is what has gotten LBJ zero rings so far.
    I mean, I wonder how much players want to team up with Lebron. Boozer left town. Ariza opted for Houston given the choice. And I think I remember Artest choosing LA over CLE. Maybe that says more about the city of Cleveland than Lebron though.

  13. Ted Nelson

    It was apparently a mutual agreement between Gilbert and Ferry. If LeBron was in love with Ferry you’d have to assume Gilbert would have pushed to keep Ferry around. Part of the Cavs recruiting pitch will be to give LeBron the keys to the organization while northeast Ohio gives him the keys to the whole area even more than he already has them.

    “And ALL of the players fighting for the championship right now (except possibly Kobe) also all have a 0% chance of being as good as Lebron…”

    There have been seasons where you could easily argue Kevin Garnett was the best player in the NBA. When he came into the league in 95 there was more than a 0% chance he could be the best ever to play the game, IMO. Kobe has been an All-NBA type for a decade, though I agree he’s no LeBron. Bynum has the talent to be the best C in the league and might sit at #2 behind Howard already. His teammate Pau Gasol being as much a competitor for the title of #2 C as anyone. Evan Turner has a lot of talent, but taking on Elton Brand to take a risk on him with the availability of big ticket free agents over the next two seasons seems excessive. Assuming Philly will even give #2 away for nothing more than the Brand cap relief.

    “I think the aura of exceedingly special treatment is what has gotten LBJ zero rings so far.”

    Hard to say that one guy doesn’t a champion make and then say LeBron should have a ring. I agree with the first part. The Cavs second best player is Anderson Varajao, though… Jamario Moon was their second best player in the playoffs. They’ve got a good, quality team that I (among more notable opinions) thought could win the East, but what was the last team to win it all with a 2nd best player the quality of Varajao? Even the Pistons had Billups and Wallace.

    “Boozer left town.”

    Because they paid him more in Utah than the Cavs possibly could under the cap.

    “Ariza opted for Houston given the choice.”

    Because he has a ring already and Houston gave him a chance to be a first scoring option.

    “And I think I remember Artest choosing LA over CLE.”

    Wouldn’t you?

  14. JK47

    Danny Ferry did a pretty poor job surrounding LeBron with talent. That has to be the thinnest 61-win team ever assembled. Take LeBron off that team and they’re back in the lottery.

    So, what do they tell LeBron now? “You can pick your coach AND your GM?” I guess they’re trying to send the message that the future is going to be different from the past.

    Call me crazy, but I think Cleveland is out of the running. LeBron could have re-signed there at any time. Perhaps he was waiting to see how the 2010 playoffs turned out, but obviously they didn’t turn out too well. I think it’s between the Heat, Bulls and Knicks. Like all Knick fans, I absolutely LOATHE those two other teams.

  15. KNCIKS2010

    Essdog and jad, you can’t get sick of lebron immediately when he wants to make a little business venture with his shoes. For gods sake 99.9 percent of the reason he would come to new york would be for a business venture. You root for a new york team. With the current state of the NBA and it’s players, you can’t expect to have a real classy team like the ones we had in the seventies. Lebron likes attention, and him coming to the knicks, hopefully with another great player, is the best option for ny basketball, attention aside.

  16. Jafa

    I’m with you ess-dog. Danny Ferry leaving cannot be a good sign for Cleveland. And yes, the summer tour and interviews seem like a desperate plea for attention. But don’t fear, I don’t think Donnie is the kind of guy that will go to the lengths Dan Gilbert in Cleveland has gone to please LBJ.

    On another note, if Donnie Walsh lands LBJ/Wade and Bosh, we should elect him mayor. I don’t care what party he campaigns under, I’d vote for him.

  17. iserp

    I’d rather have basketball players than businessmen. And i wouldn’t mind showing a little pride and not desperately beg at LeBron to come here; specially since he is on the way to drag us out of the free agency while waiting for him. I think Cle are embarrasing themselves giving the keys of the franchise to LeBron.

    If i was Walsh, the guy i would call at 12.01 the day FA starts is Wade; and i would tell him he is the best player a team can have to win a championship, and that NY is the place with better chances to get it; and after that i would call Bosh.

    If that doesn’t work, … i guess i’ll sign David lee and wait the 2 months LeBron will need to grab enough attention and decide his future.

  18. Ted Nelson

    “That has to be the thinnest 61-win team ever assembled. Take LeBron off that team and they’re back in the lottery.”

    This has been discussed ad nauseum, but I disagree. Turned out that the team lacked the studs to be a championship caliber team, but without LeBron I still think that’s a playoff team.

    “Call me crazy, but I think Cleveland is out of the running.”

    I think that’s going way too far. Stars like Duncan, Kobe, Kidd have opted to test free agency rather than re-sign earlier and still stayed put at the end of the day.

    “I’m with you ess-dog. Danny Ferry leaving cannot be a good sign for Cleveland.”

    I think it’s a sign LeBron doesn’t like Ferry as a GM.

  19. Ted Nelson

    “I’d rather have basketball players than businessmen. And i wouldn’t mind showing a little pride and not desperately beg at LeBron to come here; specially since he is on the way to drag us out of the free agency while waiting for him. I think Cle are embarrasing themselves giving the keys of the franchise to LeBron.”

    You’d rather not have LeBron?

    No one is begging LeBron. Don’t think whining is going to be what convinces LeBron. The Knicks are going to do a professional recruiting pitch. Employers in just about every business recruit talent. I was recruited for my current job and at no point did I feel like anyone was begging me to work here.

    LeBron is making NYC the first stop on his tour. He’s got the dates lined up pretty close to one another, I believe. It’s pure speculation to say he’s going to “drag us out.” Donnie Walsh has been doing this for a long time and I trust him to make sound decisions.

    LeBron James might retire as the greatest basketball player of all time and LeBron is Cleveland… They’d be embarrassing themselves if they didn’t do everything in their power to keep LeBron at home.

    “If i was Walsh, the guy i would call at 12.01 the day FA starts is Wade; and i would tell him he is the best player a team can have to win a championship”

    Then you’d be a liar. LeBron is a significantly better player than Wade.
    Conventional wisdom is that the Knicks have a better shot at signing LeBron than Wade, anyway, since Wade has ties to both Miami and Chicago. LeBron is the one who wears a Yankees cap and wants to become king of the world.

    ” i guess i’ll sign David lee and wait the 2 months LeBron will need to grab enough attention and decide his future.”

    David Lee took all of last offseason to re-sign… Not a great example to contrast against LeBron. There’s nothing to say he isn’t going to take longer to sign than LeBron, between haggling over $ and waiting for other PF chips to fall into place.

  20. iserp

    “Then you’d be a liar. LeBron is a significantly better player than Wade.”

    Yes but i dislike LeBron, :) And it would bring me a lot of pleasure that the Knicks is the team that prevents him from winning a championship… by knocking him out in all the ECF.

    However, i must say that i am only a ‘knick fan’, since i found this blog 2 or 3 years ago, read some fabolous articles, and sympathized with your problems. So if LeBron signs with the Knicks, i am not sure how will i feel about that. Maybe then i regard the Knicks as another “Money-Buys-Championships” team. I will concede that signing Wade involves the same money as signing LeBron; but in my eyes it will be a decission based on winning championships, not on selling shoes.

    So, not one of you diehard fans…

    BTW, LeBron is an awesome player, but i am not sure he is the best team player around there. Anyone who comes to NY with a second Max will have to accept that his role is going to be reduced, and that they will have to play the way D’Antoni likes (the way Pierce, Garnett and Allen’s numbers dipped, but they won the championship)

    “David Lee took all of last offseason to re-sign…”

    Should i mention that he is the least paid player in the all-star game not on a rookie scale contract? Or that he was an UFA and nobody offered him a contract sheet to accelerate the process? I mean, it was the Knicks FO who dragged the negotiations that time.

  21. latke

    iserp, As a die hard fan (watched or listened to maybe 80% of all knicks games for last 16 years or so — since my parents got cable) I’m right on board with you in that I don’t like LBJ, and I will probably root for them less if he comes. I’d rather see an 8th seed knicks team next year w/o lebron than a 3rd seed one with him.

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