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Monday, December 22, 2014

2009 NBA Draft Day

REMINDER: Don’t forget to enter the KnickerBlogger.Net 2009 Draft Contest before the draft starts!

With the draft less than 12 hours away some recent developments have changed how the night might proceed for the Knicks. Most pertinent is Minnesota trading for the #5 pick. There were rumors that New York was looking to acquire this asset from Washington, but with the pick traveling north that option has vanished. More importantly this move might affect who is available when the Knicks turn comes around. Originally it was assumed that Washington would take PF Jordan Hill with this selection. However it’s unlikely that the Timberwolves will take him because they already have two young frontcourt players in Jefferson and Love. They sent PG Foye and GF Miller in the deal, and with a guard heavy draft it’s likely that Minnesota will select two guards. Therefore it’s possible that both players Minnesota takes tonight are ones the Knicks were targeting.

There have been a few other rumors that New York was trying to add a late first round pick, but as of this writing nothing has been made official. With a draft that is more deep than top heavy, the pick could net a rough gem like Austin Daye, Marcus Thornton, or Nick Calathes.

Chad Ford reported that the Knicks are likely to send Quentin Richardson to Memphis in exchange for Darko Milicic in the next few days. This is a smart short term move for the Knicks. For the first time in years, the Knicks will have a shotblocking center, something they sorely lacked in the Isiah Thomas era. Milicic has averaged 2.6 blk/36, but his other numbers have disappointing. Last year Darko’s TS% was a respectable 53.3, but that was about 50 points above his career average so it’s possible that his good shooting was just a career fluke. He’s never averaged more than 24 minutes per game over the course of a season, so it’s unlikely that Milicic will earn a starting spot. However he’ll provide some much needed interior defense to a team that is starving for it. Milicic has only one year left on his deal, so it will not affect the team’s 2010 plans.

In other NBA news, the Hawks have netted ex-Knick Jamal Crawford, while the Cavs are on the verge of grabbing Shaquille O’Neal. The latter deal is quite interesting from a number of perspectives. Cleveland is hoping that adding Shaq will help fuel a Cavalier championship and keep LeBron from leaving via free agency. From Shaq’s perspective he gets to match up against rival Dwight Howard and Magic Coach Stan Van Gundy, who he has feuded with in the press. And should the Cavs beat the Magic in the Eastern Conference Finals this year, Shaq will go up against the Lakers and another rival Kobe Bryant.

Finally yours truly appeared on a Hardwood Paroxysm’s podcast last night for about 10 minutes, answering questions about the draft & the upcoming season.

*** BREAKING NEWS (1:30pm): Yahoo reports the Knicks acquired the Lakers’ first round pick (#29). According to the article the Knicks are looking to target a big man with this pick.

55 comments on “2009 NBA Draft Day

  1. ess-dog

    The Crawford trade is curious. It’s a hefty price tag for the Hawks to pay considering that Ronald Murray really stepped it up this year.
    Is it possible that they want Crawford to play the point? Maybe they will feature a system where Joe Johnson brings the ball up and Crawford acts as a spot up shooting pg like a Mo Williams? Maybe we could still see a Josh Smith trade? I know he’s not an efficient scorer, but I’d still like to see smith in a Knick jersey. He’s such a beast and running him under D’Antoni could be interesting…

  2. BigBlueAL

    So what does everybody think about the talk that apparently if Curry, Evans and obviously Rubio are gone that the pick will not be Jennings or Holiday but Gerald Henderson????

    Also how about Chad Ford with James Harden falling to the Knicks?? Never thought about him being on the Knicks to be honest.

  3. daaarn

    Whoa, who figures to still be around then? Honestly haven’t been following the prospects toward the bottom of the draft b/c I wasn’t really expecting this (despite the news saying they were trying to get a late first-rounder).

  4. TDM

    My friend, a Laker fan, just emailed me to thank me for the extra cash so that they can resign Ariza. Damn. Although, glad to see the Knicks picked up at least one additional first rounder.

  5. Dan Panorama

    Austin Daye could be there, which would be awesome. Also Toney Doglas. Maybe Taj Gibson?

  6. Mike K. (KnickerBlogger) Post author

    Chad Ford Mock 7.0 has Taj Gibson going one pick after. According to HoopsAnalyst Gibson:

    The best shot blocking PF in the draft. Gibson also has some other skills. He’s been a consistently efficient scorer at USC, always averaging over 1.4 PPS and topping out at 1.58 this past season. He knows how to get to the line. His rebounding has always been solid and there are no red flags in his passing game. He doesn’t score much, but might be a tad better than advertised, because the Trojans were always more of a perimeter team. He’s good enough on offense that he won’t hurt a team. Gibson should become a good bench player. He’s a proven shot blocker and he has the NBA length. He should be able to find a role off a bench somewhere.

  7. ess-dog

    The only relatively good big man in that territory is Taj Gibson if he falls that far. I would go for Wayne Ellington or Sam Young.

  8. Ray

    Taj is great and i believe he is from BROOKLYN!!! I think that would be a great pick for us at 29. Someone might get overeager and select him before that. Good rebounder ,blocks shots…nice post game. I woulndt be mad at that. There someone in the draft thats bound to slip tooo far. Like CDR did last year . I dont know who it will be but maybe we can grab one of those picks. Only a couple of hours to go fellas!!!

  9. Ricky_J

    Semi-tangent: If D. Lee takes the qualifying offer, [how] does that benefit the Knicks besides the obvious fact of getting another cheap year out of him? I’m wondering specifically in terms of positioning to re-sign him next year?

  10. Dan Panorama

    Report says Jack McClinton is targeted. Don’t know much about him, but he sounds like a good catch and shoot option.

  11. BigBlueAL

    McClinton is an amazing shooter. BUT he is a SG who is barely 6’1. I know in Hollinger’s rating system Austin Daye is rated real high so if he is available at 29 he would be a steal from what I can tell. Although he is not a true big-guy, more of a SF type.

  12. Ted Nelson

    I’d take Taj Gibson, but with so few bigs in this draft he might very well be gone.

    If it’s Jack McClinton I really wish they had gotten a 2nd rounder. In such an uncertain draft and with money such an issue right now, I suppose an early 2nd is harder to come by than a late 1st. Strikes me as a very Isiah move to bull-rush ahead and spend $3 mill plus give a guaranteed contract to “your guy” when you could have had him for much less and no one in the entire world seems as high on him as you are. Strikingly similar to the Roberson signing, but the difference would be if McClinton is actually good enough to play in the NBA.

    Victor Claver would be my pick at #29, by the way. Although he might pull a Tiago Splitter and never some over for financial reasons due to the NBA rookie scale. Would be better to take him in the 2nd.

  13. Frank

    Assuming we go point guard with the first pick, I think the next pick has to be a big like Gibson or a legitimate 2 guard, such as Ellington or Danny Green, although perhaps Green can be gotten in the 2nd. 2.6 steals/40 and 2 blocks/40 while shooting 85% FT and 42% 3PG out of a shooting guard — I like. Another guy I’d love to pick up is Paul Harris, who by all reports is the lockdown defender we’ve never had.

  14. Mike K. (KnickerBlogger) Post author

    Ricky_J:

    Lee could take the qualifying offer (which is only one year) would hurt the team, because he would be an unrestricted free agent the year after. But I don’t think it’s a good deal for Lee either. From what I can see from the CBA – it seems that this raise would only be 25%-30%. Hoops Hype has him listed as $2.7M for 2010. If you’re assuming that Lee would make upwards of $7M this year, then this is a significant loss of salary. In addition he could get injured or have a bad year and that would hurt his future earnings.

    I think a player would only do that if their either really hate the team they’re on (and they could probably force a sign & trade) or if they stand to improve the year after and therefore earn more in one year in free agency.

    Links:
    http://members.cox.net/lmcoon/salarycap.htm
    http://hoopshype.com/salaries/new_york.htm

  15. BigBlueAL

    You know what, the thing is with me no matter who they draft today at #8 and #29 I have total faith in Donnie and Coach D. Granted Isiah did prove to be a good drafter, but at least I know with whoever gets drafted tonight there is an actual plan behind their selections.

  16. ess-dog

    possible amare trade to GS for Biedrins and the #7…?
    I like that trade for the suns.

    The difference btwn McClinton and Roberson is McClinton is a MUCH better athlete (and probably a better shooter.) He had Nate-like numbers at the combine, but at 6’1″ instead of 5’7″. He’s worth a look. I like the idea of Taj though.

  17. Frank

    Chad Ford is now saying the Knicks have proposed #8 + Chandler to Minny for #5 or 6. I’m not sure if that is a good deal for us, although is probably a great deal for Minny. They could turn around and trade 6 and 8 to Memphis for #2, pick up Rubio and have Chandler at the 3.
    For us — not sure. We’d definitely have to pick up a real defender with the 2nd 1st rounder if we let him go. It would free up minutes for Gallo. And we’d get another 2MM or so in post-2010 cap money. Maybe they would do #8 + Chandler for #5 + 28?

  18. Frank O.

    You know, this Ainge Rondo feud thing seems stupid.
    If you Ainge and you don’t like Rondo, why would you tell other teams he’s such a problem to coach if you want to move him?
    Am I missing something here?
    I mean, I’m sure teams would like to have Rondo…hell, I’m sure the Knicks would like him…but other teams will use the uncoachable charge to knock down his worth.
    I’m at work and unable to research this right now. What gives?

  19. Caleb

    Gibson is 24 years old – you are looking at a guaranteed career backup, at best.

    You can’t expect much from the 29 pick but I’d much rather roll the dice with someone who has a chance of being a sleeper. Chad Ford is claiming 85 percent confidence that we’re taking Toney Douglas, if he’s available. Sounds like he got a tip from a regular source. I can’t say I know much about Douglas.

    I was intrigued by McClinton’s scoring and shooting but in Hollinger’s draft rater he rated like a JV backup. It was pretty extreme, sort of turned me off.

    As far as trading up, at this point you don’t do it until you know who’s available. I’d swap Chandler & the 8 for Rubio in a heartbeat, but no one else is worth those assets, IMO. I still think Lawson is worth a top 10 or even top 5 pick, and if there’s a way to grab him later while getting a 2nd pick or player.. do it. Even something modest, like trading down with the Bucks and getting Mbah a Moute in the deal.

    I’m surprised there isn’t at least some noise about teams trading young players for picks. For example, I’d be offering the #8 pick for Joakim Noah, Mareese Speights, Anthony Randolph, Brandan Wright, guys like that. (#9, #16, #16 and #8, respectively, in their drafts). And of course I’d see if there’s a way to move Jeffries’ salary. Curry’s is a lost cause until he gets on the court.

  20. Caleb

    That latest mock also has Blair at 22, Teague at 24 and Calathes at 26 – all total steals, IMO.

    I like either of the Carolina guys, Ellington or Danny Green, at 29.

  21. Frank

    Re: Rubio – Pau Gasol was on Colin Cowherd yesterday and basically said that he was a bad shooter, great passer, great defender. Cowherd then asked him whether he could be a 12 pt/11 assist/game guy in the league and Pau thought that was “about right”.

    Hardly a glowing endorsement from a guy who probably knows him better than any of the GMs out there.

    Just makes me a bit nervous. I guess he’s only 18 so presumably he can learn to shoot?

  22. Ted Nelson

    ess-dog, I meant more that the spirit of it is a lot like Roberson. Jam up a roster spot and guaranteed money on someone you could have gotten on an unguaranteed deal. I agree that maybe McClinton can play in the NBA, but there are a lot of really good 6-1ish guards playing in Europe because they couldn’t quite make the cut in the NBA.

    Ricky & Mike, A high pick like Ben Gordon is more likely to take the qualifying offer because it’s decent money, as Mike points out there’s a substantial difference between Lee’s qualifying offer and market value. Can’t imagine at least one team wouldn’t give Lee their MLE, and of course he could get more from a few teams with cap space, from the Knicks, or via sign-and-trade.
    For the Knicks I think Lee and/or Nate taking their qualifying offer(s) would be amazing. Another productive year cheap and then the ability to throw Lee and/or Nate in as possible targets along with LeBron, Wade, Bosh, Amare, Johnson, Nash, Dirk, etc. instead of the either/or, what if? scenario that they face this offseason.

  23. Ted Nelson

    Caleb,

    McClinton’s also 24, which might skew Hollinger’s rater.

    I don’t think you’re hearing Noah, Speights, Wright, Randolph rumors because their respective teams would rather keep them than roll the dice on a smaller player in this year’s draft. Maybe to get into the top 3 or 4…

    I would also be as open to moving down as up, and agree that you might as well hold off on any Minnesota deals. I guess, it all depends on the Knicks draft board. At #5 you’re guaranteed that at least 2 of Rubio, Thabeet, Harden, Curry, and Evans are on the board. You might as well wait to see how the top 4 shakes out though, and of course if you can get in on #2 or 3. If I even had a draft board I think Lawson in the late lottery or Jennings/Blair/Teague outside the would be great values, and would be very tempted to move down.

  24. david

    WOuldn’t Lee taking the qualifying offer be good because we could sign a 2010 free agent and then re-sign him, because we will be able to offer more to a returning player than anyone else? Or am I misunderstanding the salary rules?

  25. ess-dog

    Vince Carter to Orlando for Lee, Battie and Alston?
    That would be craaa-zaaay…

    I understand Ted. I think everyone was a little flummoxed by the “Roberson incident”. Let’s hope it was just a DW brainfart. So far, I feel like he’s handling himself well, holding on to all assets until they are pried away from his hands. I just hope they are rating the talent correctly.

    Chris Reina at Real GM just loves Holiday… “potential future all-star”… he’s much higher on him than anyone else is at this point.

  26. BigBlueAL

    Danny Green at 29 is real intriguing to me. Douglas though is really good, FSU’s best player.

  27. BigBlueAL

    WOW. Another potential trade of superstars, or at least almost superstars, for basically nothing.

  28. Caleb

    “Wouldn’t Lee taking the qualifying offer be good because we could sign a 2010 free agent and then re-sign him, because we will be able to offer more to a returning player than anyone else? Or am I misunderstanding the salary rules.”

    Lee would still have a “cap hold” – taking up space against our cap. It’s based on a formula that includes the player’s experience and previous salary. This actually could be an interesting wrinkle – Lee’s salary is so low, his cap hold might be small – like $3 million – which would give us a lot of flexibility.

    I don’t see much chance of that happening, though – DL taking a $2.5 million contract when he will have offers of $40 million, at least, this summer.

    I don’t think Roberson says much about DW’s judgement. An undrafted FA signed for 2 years, $1.6 million — you expect just a shade more than nothing, so even if he was worth nothing it’s not like he underformed by much.

  29. ess-dog

    yet a different name on realGM:

    “Sources said that the Knicks have paid $3 million for the pick and are also giving the Lakers their second round pick in 2011 in order to acquire the 29th overall pick.

    The Knicks appear to be targeting Georgetown 6-8 forward DaJuan Summers with the selection.

    Other reports indicate that Jack McClinton or Josh Heytvelt could be the target.”

    looks like we gave up a 2nd rounder too….

  30. Frank

    This Orlando-NJ things SOUNDS great but I’m not sure it’s really that great for Orlando. So they’d start:
    PG: Nelson
    SG: Carter
    SF: Hedo
    PF: Lewis
    C: Orlando

    Looks fantastic but I don’t think scoring was really their problem in the finals (honestly, all they needed to win the series was have Courtney Lee make a layup and have Hedo not miss half his free throws in game 4). I think their biggest problem was the inability of their guards to actually get the team into any sort of offense – mostly blamed on Nelson who was just awful, and Alston who was all over the place in the series. Seriously, how many times did Howard have his man pinned under the basket and not get the ball before he was called for 3 seconds or had to leave the lane to avoid 3sec?

    Not to mention the more Carter is on the floor, the less Pietrus (who looked just awesome) gets in.

    If I were Orlando I’d probably sit tight and/or try to upgrade the PG position, then have Howard work on post moves all summer. Jason Kidd on this team would be scary, and would not cost them 17 million or whatever Carter makes. Or Andre Miller would be perfect.

  31. Ted Nelson

    I suppose at 29 you’re better off seeing who is on the board than having one guy in mind before the draft. The Celtics reportedly almost drafted Tony Parker instead of Joseph Forte, for example, in which case the Spurs obviously don’t have the option of taking him (maybe they recover with an Arenas pick, or maybe they sell the pick and are never the dynasty they become).

    Caleb, I don’t think the Roberson deal is a symbolic deal that tells you all you need to know about Walsh, or much of anything. It was just odd to commit a guaranteed deal to someone you probably could have had unguaranteed. A mistake, even if only a small one, especially when there was a better option (Von Wafer) on your own summer league roster. The overconfidence in one’s own talent evaluating abilities was rather Isiahesque, much like Walshtoni’s Balkman trade. I was just positing that buying the #29 pick for #3 mill would establish an unsettling pattern (Roberson, Balkman, McClinton). The end of the roster may seem unimportant, but the difference between a roster filler and a hidden gem can be one strong rotation player. I have no idea whether what Walshtoni’s intentions are with #29, of course.

    Frank, Good insight on the Magic. I guess most people just felt they needed someone else who could “create a shot” but I like your take a lot.

  32. david

    I do — I think Carter is Hedo insurance as much as anything….

    Also, what does anyone think of Patty Mills with the 29 pick if we don’t pick a PG at the top of the draft? Or even if we do — I think he could be a Barbosa like player for our bockers…

  33. Brian Cronin

    How can you afford to pay Carter, Lewis and Hedo (not to mention Nelson and Howard)?

    Mike’s reaction was mine as well – Carter in likely means Hedo out, and if that’s the case, that’s a terrible move by Orlando.

    As for the proposed Chandler for Big Ben trade, that would be darn near perfect for the Suns.

  34. Owen

    I don’t know Brian, you prefer Hedo to Carter? Vince had a great season last year, quietly. I think he is a significant upgrade….

  35. TDM

    Looks like a horse race between Orlando and Cleveland.

    Is Rafer going to come off the bench for NJ, or will they shift either he or Devin to the 2? I don’t see CDR starting at the 2.

  36. Ted Nelson

    I’ll be interested to see what the implications of this are for the Magic. Lee is a pretty solid long-term piece to give up.
    The only problem that I see with the VC for Hedo logic is that the Magic’s size appeared to be a problem against the Lakers and that would make them smaller. Maybe they resign Gortat and let Hedo walk. Maybe go for a true PF with the MLE (Sheed?) and bump Lewis down to the 3? Maybe with a ring on the line whoever owns the team is willing to lose money and just pays everyone.

    Tyson Chandler does seem like a good fit next to Amare, if the Suns are keeping Amare. I guess it rules Biedrins out as a target for them. There’s also the McGrady/Amare rumor, but taking on salary in the Chandler deal seems to indicate the Suns are going in another direction.

  37. Brian Cronin

    I don’t know Brian, you prefer Hedo to Carter? Vince had a great season last year, quietly. I think he is a significant upgrade….

    I like Carter more than Hedo, I just don’t think Carter fits into the team’s needs as well as Hedo does (defense, height, etc.)

    I think Carter would work better on a team where he could play a Manu Ginobili type role (you know, primary scorer on the court).

    Although, I admit that I did not know Carter is listed at the same weight as Hedo. Wow (four inches shorter, but still – that’s some impressive weight by Carter right there, as you have to assume that’s muscle).

  38. ess-dog

    If you’re the Knicks and S. Curry falls to you at #8, do you trade the pick and the Balkman exemption to Boston for Rondo?

  39. Brian Cronin

    That’s like asking “If you’re the Knicks, and you find a stick of gum on the floor, do you trade it to Boston for Rondo?” :)

    Of course the Knicks would do that, but the Celtics never would.

  40. Ted Nelson

    I know you can’t trade a player plus a trade exception, don’t know about draft rights. Also don’t think that would fly for Boston. Maybe with Chandler and Nate sign-and-trade or something.

    “Lee is a pretty solid long-term piece to give up.”
    I would actually like to retract that statement. I like Lee, but he’s fairly one dimensional. I think it’s somewhat of a win-win trade. Nets add to their young core (Harris, Lopez, & co. meet Lee and #11 pick) while clearing cap space. If Ratner is trying to sell then this deal allows for long-term cap flexibility plus immediate rotation depth. VC would seem to be an upgrade over Turkoglu (who I think is a bit overrated at this point), if he’s a replacement rather than a teammate.

    One name I could see mentioned in one of Caleb’s hidden young prospects on teams for draft picks rumors is maybe Sean Williams of the Nets for a late 1st. I suppose he’s a toxic asset and he took a big step backwards from year 1 to 2, but at that point in the draft how many bigmen have Williams’ upside? I might entertain #29 for Sean Williams if I were Walsh. Doubt anyone would actually do it, but if I’m the Nets I give it a try.

  41. ess-dog

    All right then, what about something like the #8 and Duhon or Chandler for Rondo and Mikki Moore? I’m not sure I even want Rondo, just thinking out loud…
    I think if OKC takes Rubio and we take Henderson, you will see a Henderson + Lee for Rubio swap.

  42. BigBlueAL

    Latest Chard Ford mock draft now has Steph Curry falling to the Knicks at #8. Gonna be an interesting night.

  43. Caleb

    I’m with Owen on Carter – he’s terrific. A much better playmaker than Hedo, IMO. Not as good a defender, but not awful – Orlando has D to spare. He costs more, but it’s only two years instead of a 6-year commitment.

    But it’s a perfectly good deal for the Nets – they don’t care if they win 20 or 30 games. Heck, 20 is better for their draft position. And now they’re free and clear, salary-wise. Plus, this is better than the other Carter offers that have been floated, in that they got a couple of decent players as well as salary relief.

  44. Frank

    I’m hoping that all this talk that all the teams ahead of coveted Curry was just talk to try to get Donnie to trade up… now the sources are all thinking he’ll drop to us — one can only hope.

  45. BigBlueAL

    Hope so to Frank!!!! Also shows great patience by Walsh if the Knicks do indeed get Curry w/o moving up and staying at #8.

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