Willams—33.7—52.9%—14.0—4.5—4.2—1.6—3.2
Brooks—-36.8—59.4%—17.3—4.2—4.2—1.3—2.5

There’s Williams (2 year) career at Alabama and Brooks senior season at Oregon. Neither was the play-maker Lawson is, and Williams just wasn’t that great overall. Both better rebounders and worse “stealers” than Lawson.

One other note: Felton’s scoring efficiency dropping so drastically from college to the pros might be a slight red flag for Lawson. Lawson was a significantly higher-volume/higher-efficiency scorer than Felton at UNC, but playing PG under Roy Williams on a national championship caliber team probably inflates your scoring efficiency to some extent (otherwise Lawson should become the most efficient scoring PG in the NBA). Felton has failed to develop range out to the NBA 3 after canning 44% of his 3s his junior season, though, and maybe Lawson doesn’t have that problem.

———–MPG—TS%—-P/36—A/36—R/36—S/36—TO/36—B/36
Holiday—-27.1—53.6%–11.2—4.9—-5.0—–2.1—–2.8——0.7
Westbrook-9.0—-51.4%–13.5—2.7—-3.1—–1.6—–3.1——0.1
Rondo—–25.1—-55.8%–11.6—5.0—4.1——3.7—–2.9—–0.3
Farmar—-34.4—-54.4%–13.8—5.5—-3.6—–1.5—–4.1—–0.1
Davis——31.3—-60.6%–13.4—5.8—4.6——2.8—–3.6—–0.4
Murray—-38.1—-54.7%–21.0—4.5—5.3——1.5—–4.4—–0.5
West——-17.0—50.4%—12.5–2.5—6.3——1.7—–2.0—–0.3
Arenas—-32.1—-54.7%—17.2–2.3—4.5——2.3—–2.9—–0.3
Jones——21.1—62.1%—15.5—3.3—5.8——1.2—-3.6—–1.2
Dooling—-24.1—55.6%—12.9—4.5—3.1——1.7—-2.9—–0.6
Sessions—31.1—47.8%—10.4—6.0—4.3—–1.7—–3.5—–0.1
Johnson—-31.8—54.6%—18.1—2.5—6.5—–2.2—–3.0—–0.6
Rose——–29.2—56.7%—18.4—5.8—5.6—–1.5—–3.3—-0.5

All those guys except Flip Murray and Ramon Sessions were at least recruited by a bigtime program, but I’m not sure any besides Rose had the hype that Holiday brought to UCLA (maybe Rondo). You could interpret that as he was the most physically ready of the group and still fell on his face, or you could say expectations were just unfair.
After the recent success of the Rondo steal and Westbrook reach, this is the perfect moment in draft history to enter from Holiday’s perspective: some team will take him Top 10 or at least Top 15. Before Rondo and Westbrook (and maybe to some extent Ariza, another raw UCLA frosh), I don’t see Holiday getting picked in the 1st round after that terrible season.

I’m tempted to look at the numbers and say he can become a legitimate PG, but that’s based mostly on Rondo. If he does become a legit starting PG, I wouldn’t expect him among the league leaders in assists. (Could be possible that playing with Darren Collison and at UCLA negatively distorted his assist numbers…)
Scoring isn’t THAT worrying based on the above list, but it’s still a big red flag. Between the low volume and mediocre-to-low efficiency I don’t think it will ever be his calling card.
His basketball athleticism seems to be there based on Reb, STL, and BLK numbers.
I think his best hope is as an elite defender and solid/unspectacular PG in a dynamic offense. Might fit in great on Portland, but I don’t know if they trade up for a raw project.
Developing a consistent outside shot would (obviously) be huge.

The league is pretty much tailor-made for guys like him… quick, smaller PGs. You could throw Aaron Brooks in the mix… maybe Mo Williams… maybe Tony Parker, although you don’t have college stats.

NCAA Career:

———-MPG—-TS%—–PT/36–A/36–R/36–S/36–TO/36
Lawson—27.0—63.3%—17.5—7.7—3.8—-2.3—-2.8
Felton—-33.9—55.6%—13.3—7.3—4.4—-2.0—–3.8
Nelson—-34.5—57.9%—17.5—6.0—4.9—??——??
Ford——33.0—50.7%—14.1—8.7—4.2—-2.3—–3.9
Robinson-28.2—57.2%—18.4—4.2—4.9—-2.0—–2.5
Brandon—38.2–57.6%—20.9—5.2—3.4—1.9——3.4
El-Amin—30.1—53.1%—18.3—5.3—3.5—2.1—–3.2

Final NCAA season
———-MPG—-TS%—–PT/36–A/36–R/36–S/36–TO/36
Lawson–29.9—-67.0%—20.0—7.9—3.6—-2.6 —-2.3
Felton—31.7—-59.6%—-14.6—7.8—4.9—2.3—-4.1
Nelson—33.9—-60.5%—21.9—5.6—5.0—3.2—-3.0
Ford—–33.6—-51.3%—-16.1—8.2—4.2—2.1—-3.5
Robinson-31.5—59.5%—-18.8—5.2—4.4—2.0—-2.3
Brandon-39.6—-58.4%—-24.2—4.6—3.3—2.0—-3.3
El-Amin–31.9—-53.1%—18.0—5.9—3.5—1.9—–3.0
Law——33.9—-59.8%—-19.2—5.3—3.5—1.2 —-2.7
Lowry—-29.3—-56.9%—-13.5—4.5—5.3—2.9—-2.6
Gordon–34.5—–57.8%—19.3—4.7—4.9—1.4—-2.9

I think it’s fair to say that Lawson offers the best combination of efficient scoring and playmaking ability in the group. His possession stats (steals, TOs) are good. One negative is that he’s a below average rebounder for his size.

Threw Ben Gordon’s Junior in there to compare Lawson to a dead-eye shooter at the NBA level, and his volume is comparable and efficiency significantly higher. Different positions obviously, but thought it could be interesting.

NBA Career—TS%—PTS/36—AST%—REB%—STL%—TO%
Felton——–48.7%—13.8—-31.6%—5.7%—-2.1%—-16.1%
Nelson——-54.9%—16.2—-28.6%—6.5%—-2.0%—-15.4%
Ford———-50.7%—14.9—-35.7%—6.4%—-2.2%—-17.9%
Robinson—–53.6%—18.0—-18.6%—6.8%—-1.9%—-11.6%
Brandon——51.9%—16.7—-35.5%—6.1%—-2.9%—-12.9%
El-Amin——45.8%—-12.1—-27.5%—5.1%—-2.8%—-13.6%
Law———-46.9%—-10.0—-21.6%—4.7%—-1.5%—-16.7%
Lowry——–53.8%—-13.1—-24.0%—6.1%—-2.3%—-16.2%
Gordon——-55.4%—-21.3—17.6%—5.4%—-1.3%—-12.7%

I think Lawson projects as a solid NBA player, without doing any calculations I’d guess TS% above 55… maybe even high 50s/ low 60s, 16 pts/36, AST rate in the mid 30s (top 10 in NBA), rebound rate 5 or under (aka bad), and one of the best possession PGs in the NBA in terms of STLs vs. TOs. A good quality starter who might make a couple All-Star appearances (like Brandon and Nelson… maybe Brandon’s PG skills and D with Nelson’s scoring).

I still think we will go with Curry at 8. But if he’s gone for some reason, I think you need to let the GM do his job and let the coaches do their jobs. Larry Brown got in trouble when he decided he had to have final say on personnel. I would be more willing to go with Walsh’s choice, even though I like D’Antoni as a coach. But if Jennings is falling to 15, 16 you should make a play there. It’s good to go where you can recognize value, like Lopez at 10 last year.
Speaking of which, Blair would be a great fit in NJ next to Lopez (what a great frontcourt!)
Not sure about Teague. He seems like a JR Smith type. I would love to get a bonafide starter out of this pick and not another bench specialist (it could be argued that we had one of the strongest benches last year.)
Also this from Gortat:

Marcin Gortat has let it be known that he would like playing in New York.

When Donnie Walsh was asked about Gortat, he did not express interest but did not deny it either.

“That’s his agent saying it, not me, alright? I haven’t said anything about anybody,” Walsh said. “I’m not going to talk about somebody else’s property, particularly now. They’re still playing.”

Jennings calls out Rubio: http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/draft2009/news/story?id=4255421
On the one hand, maybe he’s right and just a competitor whose mouth put him in a bad spot. However, the quotes really turn me off and get me thinking about another much hyped high school PG: Stephon Marbury. Basically, to paraphrase, Jennings says “all Rubio does is pass the ball. I shoot better than him. He’s not that good. I am the best.” A PG who passes the ball, thinks through the game, and makes his teammates better??? God forbid.
Given that he couldn’t qualify for college, there have to be serious questions about his intellect and ability to learn the game at the PG position. (It seems to have slipped BJ’s mind that Rubio was injured a good part of the season and his numbers indicate that he wasn’t 100% upon returning, kind of like saying you’re better than Jameer Nelson based on his performance in the Finals…) Definitely doesn’t sound like someone you want running your team, but maybe it was just youthful indiscretion or competitive fire. I guess NBA teams that get to actually speak to him have a better feel.

http://www.nbadraft.net/players/semen-shaskov

“Semen Shashkov 6’9” SF Russia — A talented kid with nice speed and skills. Still leaves you wanting more…” I didn’t write it. http://www.nbadraft.net/node/6910

I found this name funny enough to end my KB hiatus. Ess-Dog says: “You were gone?”

BTW Mike K, love what you’ve done with the place. Forums gone?

Funny thing about the draft is that every year we seem just 1-2 picks lower than we want to get the players we like. Last year it was, “If only we were in the top 4.” This year is much the same. Drafts work out that way sometime but honestly isnt every player after BG something of a project in some way or another? Rubio needs time and muscle. Thabeet needs foot work drills. Harden has question marks. Evans has all the physical tools but can they come together? Can Curry play point? Is Flynn big enough? Is Jennings ready? Can Derozan shoot from deep? Is Clark worth the gamble?

I love the draft.

“A number of agents have approached the Knicks with a proposition of sorts: You promise to draft my guy and I won’t work him out for teams drafting above the Knicks. Why? Not only are the marketing opportunities off the charts for players in New York, but many players really want to play for Mike D’Antoni.”

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/draft2009/insider/columns/story?columnist=ford_chad&page=DraftBuzz-090612&addata=2009_insdr_mod_nba_xxx_xxx

Jennings would be a reasonable pick at #8 – I have a hunch that Jennings will end up one of the five best players in the draft. You could even defend a Holliday pick — he was disappointing but still solid at the point for a freshman, good assist and rebound #s, plus UCLA players seem to consistently outperform their college numbers. It’s certainly true of Westbrook, Mbah a Moute and Aron Afflalo, and Love was just as good as advertised.

But there are a lot of guys who would be terrific value in the mid-first, 12-20 range. Lawson is probably top of my list. Jeff Teague, also good. Blair, although his health issues are pretty big. Or a more conservative pick, like Clark or Terrence Williams, or even Chase Budinger… To make that trade and nab a second draft pick, even if it’s next year – that could be a solid move.

I have to dissent on DeMar DeRozan – I don’t think anyone can make a case that he is one of the ten best small forwards in the draft, much less one of the ten best players. I know he was super-hyped coming out of high school but he did nothing at USC.