Statistical Analysis. Humor. Knicks.

Saturday, November 29, 2014

2008-9 Game Thread: Knicks vs Celtics

Stu Jackson helped give the Knicks a punter’s chance of winning tonight by suspending Kevin Garnett one game, so the All-Star Forward will miss tonight’s game. Then again, he missed two games against the Knicks last year as well, and the Knicks lost both games.

In other news, apparently Gallinari may “only” need to rest two months rather than have surgery, which is good news, if true (thanks to Italian Stallion for the heads up).

116 comments on “2008-9 Game Thread: Knicks vs Celtics

  1. justin

    we have to remember that the knicks are a different team mentally this year and i am giving them 30 percent chance to win this game, which is probably alot more than most people on this forum would give them

  2. TDM

    Looks like the Knicks are content with jacking up 3’s instead of driving to the hoop on occassion, which helps explain the lack of rebounding, second chance points, and fouls being called on the Celts.

  3. o_boogie

    id like to see z-bo’s +/- this game. once he came out of the game we ran up a 6 point lead. now that hes back we are down 3.

  4. jon abbey

    we’re going to get killed on the boards and have no interior D all year long, that’s just a given with the tiny lineups we play and the personnel we have.

    what we can’t afford, pretty much ever, is Jamal disappearing, which he did in the second half and OT of the Dallas game and in the first half tonight.

  5. TDM

    There is something really wrong with your game plan when you have more three point attempts than free throws or rebounds. This is pathetic.

  6. Italian Stallion

    we’re going to get killed on the boards and have no interior D all year long, that’s just a given with the tiny lineups we play and the personnel we have.
    what we can’t afford, pretty much ever, is Jamal disappearing, which he did in the second half and OT of the Dallas game and in the first half tonight.

    Same old Crawford. I keep trying to like him, but he’s too inconsistent and plays no “D”. He’s the guy we need to trade.

  7. Tommy Boy

    Lucky you- you get to listen to me talk without the distraction of the picture. I give you a Tommy Point!

  8. Italian Stallion

    Can we at least put the Wilson Chandler debate to rest?

    I realize there’s still some learning and development to go, but it should be clear by now that what we saw most of last year and what we have now are two entirely different players.

  9. Ephus

    Even if the Knicks do not pull this one out, the effort in the 4th Quarter has been nice to see. Randolph did not have it, but Chandler showed a lot. David Lee has to know what he is going to do before he jumps with the ball.

  10. TDM

    It seems fitting that Boston had to play without Garnett, and the Knicks had to play without Crawford.

    Well at least Abbey’s theory about Craw is back in play…

    This game was definitely win-able, but can be summed up as ‘too little, too late.’

  11. njhoop

    The Knicks looked totally overmatched for 3 quarters. Pierce barely played, Allen didn’t do much and we were still down double digits with Powe and Perkins killing us inside. Knicks made a nice run at the end which I don’t think they would have made last year. Unfortunately, in a close game, Pierce will get the ball every time down the court and usually score or get fouled. Other than maybe Kobe or LeBron, is there any player in the league better in the last 2 minutes?

    Celtic fans had to be impressed with Chandler, he played his butt off.

  12. cBrooklyn

    marion for crawford……is that a possibility??…crawford is way too inconsistent ,,trade him NOW why his value is high ..

  13. Z

    Balkman had a +/- of +15 in his 20 minutes of PT today (4-4 FTs).

    Luckily, to soften the blow to Knick fans, Taurean Green, the other centerpiece to the deal, scored 19 points on just 7 shots in 22 minutes for CAI Zaragoza of the ACB.

    (Is that your home team, Ted?).

    Turns out that was an even trade…

  14. Owen

    Just got home, from a great date, and was watching ESPN.

    They have a new feature called ESPN Next Level. Never seen it before.

    It included True Shooting Percentage and +/-.

    I have to say, I am totally gobsmacked. So effing cool….

  15. Ted Nelson

    Can we at least put the Wilson Chandler debate to rest?
    I realize there’s still some learning and development to go, but it should be clear by now that what we saw most of last year and what we have now are two entirely different players.

    He’s played a whole lot better than last season and has a lot of promise, but he’s still the same player. 23 FGA, 1-6 from 3, and 0-1 from the FT line…

    23 FGA and 1 FTA??????????????? How is that even possible? Especially for someone with his skill set: mediocre jump shot, lots of strength and athleticism. The Knicks need to lock him in a room with Paul Pierce tapes and not let him out until he learns at least where on the court the FT line is, what its function is.

    Unfortunately, he’s pretty much as good as anyone on the Knicks.

  16. Ted Nelson

    “Celtic fans had to be impressed with Chandler, he played his butt off.”

    Yes, they saw shades of alltime Celtic great Antoine Walker…

  17. clillie

    just cause there the celtics doesn’t mean you cant call fouls. Zach an David were getting slammed underneath the basket, and were getting no calls. Also Malik Rose is garbage. Please do not play him for the rest of the season.

  18. Italian Stallion

    Ted,

    I have to agree. Perhaps he doesn’t really understand that it’s good to get to the FT line if you are about to take a tough contested shot. He’s obviously not going to get fouled often when he’s taking 3 pointers (which I think he still needs to get more selective about or improve on), but when he’s around the hoop he must be using his athleticism to get off shots without being fouled in situations where he’d be better off getting fouled and putting up the tougher shot.

  19. caleb

    Balkman had a +/- of +15 in his 20 minutes of PT today (4-4 FTs).

    More for us Balkman obsessives… in those 20 minutes, he also had 2 steals, 4 blocks, 5 fouls and a sprained ankle.

    re: Chandler – I’d say in the long run his biggest value will be on defense. On O he just shoots too much, and too inefficiently. He’s young enough to overcome it, but as Owen likes to point out, the financial incentive is to keep it up.

    re: Crawford for Marion? Interesting… Miami would probably hold out for better offers, but not sure they’ll get one. On our end, I’d only do it if I could flip Marion for a draft pick or good and cheap rook. No point in having him around the next few years.

  20. nj hoop

    “Celtic fans had to be impressed with Chandler, he played his butt off.”

    “Yes, they saw shades of alltime Celtic great Antoine Walker…”

    Wow, comparing Chandler to “Toine”, that’s a low blow. I think it’s unfair to criticize a guy for not getting to the line when he’s the only one on the team generating any kind of offense.They would have never even had a chance in the 4th qtr. if he wasn’t making his shots all game. Did you see his move where he hung in the air, double clutched and made the shot? Is that his fault that he didn’t draw a foul? Was anyone else on the Knicks getting to the line? Let’s be a little patient with the guy, his progress has been tremendous this season and he’ll keep getting better.

  21. Italian Stallion

    “Celtic fans had to be impressed with Chandler, he played his butt off.”
    “Yes, they saw shades of alltime Celtic great Antoine Walker…”
    Wow, comparing Chandler to “Toine”, that’s a low blow. I think it’s unfair to criticize a guy for not getting to the line when he’s the only one on the team generating any kind of offense.They would have never even had a chance in the 4th qtr. if he wasn’t making his shots all game. Did you see his move where he hung in the air, double clutched and made the shot? Is that his fault that he didn’t draw a foul? Was anyone else on the Knicks getting to the line? Let’s be a little patient with the guy, his progress has been tremendous this season and he’ll keep getting better.

    Yea, but his stats from early last season still suck. (just going for the laugh)

  22. Caleb

    Chandler vs. Antoine Walker… not a bad comparison. Almost the exact same size. Nice all-around game, but just enough versatility to get themselves into trouble (say, around the 3-point line). Chandler is now just a year younger than ‘Toine was when he came into the league. He was skinny then, too…

    ‘Toine wasn’t a punchline until he got a huge contract and was supposed to be a #1 star on a contending team. That fiction dissolved when he got shut down by Kenyon Martin two playoff series in a row.
    Overall, he’s had been a pretty good player – excellent rebounder for a small forward, ok for a PF, good passer, ok at everything else — but with one big downside; shooting a massive volume while being pretty ineffecient. That’s the trap for Chandler to avoid.

    Walker wasn’t a bad defender in the old days, but Chandler may end up having an edge there.

  23. ess-dog

    Oh please. When has ‘toine ever blocked a shot? Chandler is way more athletic. He just can’t fall in love with his jump shot- especially with his ability to elevate. He’s only 20 guys… give him a chance to improve his game.
    I’m excited about flipping Zach for a good draft pick at the deadline. His play will really help us rebuild if he keeps it up. Same with Crawford hopefully.

  24. Caleb

    Antoine Walker, age 21 (2nd season in the league)
    vs.
    Wilson Chandler, age 21 (2nd season in the league – through 11 games)

    ‘Toine Ill-Will
    mpg 40 29
    FG% .423 .476
    3Pt .286 .312
    TS% .481 .528
    FTA/36 5.2 1.9
    reb rate 15.1 10.1
    R/36 9.2 6.8
    A/36 3.0 1.8
    TO/36 3.2 1.6
    blks/36 0.7 0.8
    stls/36 1.6 1.5

    ‘Toine had a much bigger role, both in minutes played and how much he handled the ball. He had a monster usage rate, starting his rookie year. He’s actually a better 3-point shooter than Chandler, and got to the line almost three times as often, but his TS% was a good ways lower — partly because he couldn’t hit a FT, and partly because Chandler is much better on 2-pointers.

    ‘Toine was a much better rebounder, and had much more ball-handling responsibility. A few years after this, his assist numbers were guard-like.

    I think Chandler will end up a better defender, but so far his blocks & steals numbers aren’t any better than ‘Toine.

    If you think Chandler will have a long NBA career as a solid starter, you have a good bet. If you think he will be a star, you are on shaky ground. If you assume he’ll start hitting a huge percentage of his 3s, or blocking 3 shots a game – check out the arc of Antoine Walker’s career.
    http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/w/walkean02.html
    http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/c/chandwi01.html

    If you think he’ll end up being paid like a star… well, check out the arc of Antoine Walker’s paycheck.

  25. Italian Stallion

    Aside from shot selection, I think Chandler is also going to have to work on his handle and passing a bit. He’s really sort of an in between player (3 or 4). We can already see he’s not big enough to defend on some of the bigger PF’s in the league. He can play some 4, but he’s probably going to play some 3 also depending on the matchups. If he’s going to play more 3, then I think he needs to up some of those other passing and ball handling skills to get to a higher level as a player.

    I think we’ll see more of him at the 3 when Jeffries returns and they move Zach to the #4.

    The encouraging thing is that he’s so young and supposedly a hard worker.

  26. Italian Stallion

    Caleb,

    IMO, the biggest difference between Walker and Chandler has nothing to do with stats or athleticism (although IMO the latter is a factor). Walker was/is a lazy fat ass that never really worked hard for “the team” or to reach his full potential as a player. That’s why everyone kept getting rid of him. Every word out of Knick camp suggests the opposite about Chandler.

  27. Caleb

    He’s really sort of an in between player (3 or 4)

    Yes, and IMO, his numbers and overall game look better at the 3. His ballhandling and passing could stand improvement, but he’s a pretty good rebounder and interior defender for a 3. If he has to carry those responsibilities as the starting power forward, they become weaknesses.

    I think when Jeffries is back he’s more likely to take minutes from Q on the perimeter, than actually play center…

  28. Ted Nelson

    My point with Chandler is that he is good, but can be very good with one minor adjustment. To me that’s not like saying Mardy Collins could be good if he completely reinvented his offensive game: it’s much more frustrating. He just has to draw some contact and not settle for so many jumpers. At some point teams are going to start giving him wide open 3 pointers because they know he’ll take them and miss, it may not be a coincidence that he attempted 6 3PA against one of the best defenses in the NBA.

    The reason I compare WC to Toine is that he was also good, but never made the adjustments (at least not on a sustained basis). I think Caleb’s point is fair that he was never going to be Tim Duncan, but I’m not referring to his glory days on Celtics Eastern Conference runners-up so much as the fact that he never made the adjustments to the point where in his early 30s his 4-7 team would rather not even let him suit up and no one else in the NBA seems inclined to make a trade to give him the chance to play.

    Other Knicks were getting to the line: Randolph 9 times, Q 5 times, even Malik Rose had 2 FTAs. Zach, Duhon, Nate, Q, and Lee all scored pretty much in line with (or well above in Duhon’s case) their season averages… so I think nj hoop’s beef is with Crawford only. The problem was that WC took 27% of the Knicks FGAs and only 4.5% of their FTAs.

    Toine’s career best was 0.8 blks/36 and he had several seasons at 0.7. WC’s been at 0.8 both this season and last. Their games are different, but Toine had amazing “basketball athleticism” as a young player.

  29. Caleb

    IMO, the biggest difference between Walker and Chandler has nothing to do with stats or athleticism (although IMO the latter is a factor). Walker was/is a lazy fat ass that never really worked hard for “the team” or to reach his full potential as a player.

    You’re talking about a guy who led the league in minutes played, who was obviously in great shape, at least in Boston. As far as “working for the team,” ‘Toine was the point forward in Boston, with primary ballhandling and playmaking duties for many years. Chandler looks like he’s wearing a shock collar that will go off if he doesn’t throw the ball at the basket when he gets it. He might change his style eventually, but ‘Toine didn’t.

    It get the feeling you’re also saying that Walker’s teammates didn’t like them, but a) I don’t know if that’s true – I mean, Paul Pierce demanded a trade because the team dumped Walker; and b) I don’t think the lockerroom stuff matters to how the team plays… although some people (calling Jon Abbey) would disagree.

  30. Ted Nelson

    WC does seem to have a work ethic that Toine lost over the years, but I also think his big shiny muscles are blinding IS. He obviously works very hard for himself and maybe he wants to win badly, whether he ever does what it takes to win (learns the game and puts his knowledge to use) remains to be seen. For example, I’m sure Allen Iverson wants to win as badly as anyone, but the problem is that he’s always thought him taking 50 shots a game was the best way for his team to win. By and large, I disagree.

  31. Italian Stallion

    Ted,

    I can make the distinction between working hard to actually become a better player and contribute to the success of your team and simply wanting to win. I feel certain, that if WC was the latter, we wouldn’t be hearing such glowing reports from the coaching staff and other memebers of the team aout him. You get the same feeling about Lee and and now Gallinari. So you expect them to at least inch forward each year depending on their natural abilities.

    I don’t care what kind of shape Walker was in at his prime and how much talent he was blessed with to start, at no point in his career did he have a reputation as a “team first” kind of guy that wanted to get better every year. He was just another talented guy who got progressively lazy and self centered as time went by.

  32. cavjam

    I wish people would quit dissing Mardy. The toughest thing for an NBA player is to play for five minutes/game. That’s barely enough time to crack a sweat, get a feel for the flow. How can one accurately measure ability in such a span?

    Unlike Craw, he doesn’t seem to be fatally allergic to driving to the hole, plus, once there, he, unlike Craw, has a better than 50/50 chance of actually scoring; unlike N8, he can keep his emotions in check and doesn’t allow the easy inlet; unlike Q, he actually may have a rhythm to find. Unlike any of the three, he can play some D.

    Personally, I think D’Antoni should have started Lee in place of Q for this game. Better match-ups. Then again, D’Antoni’s loyalty seems to inspire his crew. I just think, against lineups like this, that loyalty’s misplaced.

  33. Owen

    “Chandler looks like he’s wearing a shock collar that will go off if he doesn’t throw the ball at the basket when he gets it.”

    I like….

    Didn’t see the game. Looks like classic WC. 23 shots in 38 minutes with a ts@ of 49%.

    Anyone give me a DLee update? He seems to have struggled again with turnovers, but he also posted a +6. Was he just out there when someone got hot or did he have a solid performance?

  34. Nick C.

    Lee was OK. He seemed to be the key player during the run they made in the 4th, with a few finishes near the rim on some drives and cuts.

  35. Ted Nelson

    IS,

    I’m not questioning your judgement. As a fan who I assume has never even met the man I just don’t think you’re in a very good position to say what he’s like, what he does in his spare time, what his thoughts are, what motivates him, what his goals are, why he shoots so damn much, why he rarely passes (the ball or on a semi-open look), etc. (Nor am I.)

    How about Jamal Crawford? What coach hasn’t loved him since he’s been with the Knicks? After all the evidence and all the praise who still doesn’t think he puts the team first? How many other guys come to camp in shape to run around for 40+ mpg? He still hurts the team by being a mediocre shooter who brings very little else to the table, being terribly inconsistent, taking too many bad shots, and falling in love with his jumper. (Chandler obviously brings defense that Jamal lacks, but as far as scoring efficiently I think Jamal’s been a good example of a hard working “team first guy” who never got it together. I would have never considered his that a couple seasons ago, but every year he’s the team leader and coach’s pet.)
    Everyone calls Mardy Collins an “intangibles guy” who puts the team first and he seems to have worked very hard over the offseason, but he still isn’t even a passable NBA player. WC is obviously already there, but the point is that no matter how hard Mardy works he’s unlikely to change his stripes.
    Shane Battier is the ultimate intangibles guy and hard worker, so is Bruce Bowen. They’ve averaged 11.1 and 8.1 pts/36 on their careers respectively. An indication both that all their work couldn’t make them effective high-volume scorers and that they realize they help their team more by not forcing shots.

    I’m not saying that WC is going to purposely sabotage the team with poor shot selection and not getting to the line… although at 16.3 FGA/36 and 1.9 FTA/36 I could probably be convinced. It’s just that most player who have a tendency to fall in love with their jumper never break the habit. Toine is one classic example of this, with his post moves being equivalent to Chandler’s athleticism as an easy alternative he rarely choose to use… that’s the only comparison I was trying to draw. It was/is a mental thing for Toine, and we have yet to see if WC can overcome it. Even if their personalities are completely opposite (I have no idea), they share a problem in common: they just love outside jumpers too much.

  36. Italian Stallion

    >As a fan who I assume has never even met the man I just don’t think you’re in a very good position to say what he’s like, what he does in his spare time, what his thoughts are, what motivates him, what his goals are, why he shoots so damn much, why he rarely passes (the ball or on a semi-open look), etc. (Nor am I.)<

    I agree, but all the evidence from the coaching staff and teammates suggests one thing about him, yet another thing about Walker. So my point that there may be a critical difference between the two players unrelated to stats etc… long term seems quite reasonable to me.

    If some of you guys weren’t so insistent on being contrarian on everything I say though, we would probably rarely have much to discuss though. ;-)

    The only place on earth that Chandler as a prospect was even debated much was here. Everyone else on earth is universally high on him, just to varying degrees.

  37. mase

    we looked so flat last night…at the very least Stephon would’ve made us competitive through the first 3 quarters

  38. mase

    reality is setting in that we will be on the bubble of the playoffs or at best ‘1 and done’ thus destroying our lottery chances.

  39. Caleb

    The only place on earth that Chandler as a prospect was even debated much was here. Everyone else on earth is universally high on him, just to varying degrees.

    Depends what you mean by “high.” I haven’t seen anyone away from this site suggest that Chandler is superstar material. Saying he’s about as good as Antoine Walker isn’t an insult — he was the 2nd-best player on 50-win teams, a starter on an NBA champion, etc. Do you think Chandler could be the centerpiece of a contending team?

  40. Ted Nelson

    IS,

    I’m fairly high on Chandler as a prospect as well (not calling him the centerpiece of a contending team, but maybe a good 3rd/4th option on a strong contender), just would like to see him play smarter. I know you assume he’ll develop, but there are plenty of current and former NBA players people assumed would get it and never did. I’m hopeful that Chandler will be one of the ones who gets it, but I can’t guarantee it.

    This is also one of the rare places around where people would contest the statement that Allen Iverson was better than Andre Miller and is better than Chauncey Billups. That’s just an example, but I think that most places where advanced stats are valued people would still be waiting for WC to show them something. They’d probably assume it’s somewhere between possible and likely given his production so far this season, but even from watching him it’s hard to deny that he’s got a chuckers’ attitude. I, for one, don’t think there’s much that hurts an offense more than a high-usage/low-efficiency player. WC has scored somewhat efficiently so far this season, but it’s like every time he scores 20 points people are ready to crown him the Knicks’ savior no matter how many shots it took him to get there. This is part of the reason why there’s a perverse incentive for NBA players to put scoring volume ahead of scoring efficiency. From a team’s perspective its hard to deny that efficiency is more important, and for a team to score efficiently at least some of its players must do likewise (unless they’re incredibly good at not turning the ball over and/or offensive rebounding).

  41. Ben R

    I think Chandler’s inefficiency is being blown out of proportion. He is shooting an adaquate TS% of 53.1% which puts him at about average in terms of efficiency. He is also shooting a solid efg% of 51.4% so I do not think you can really call him a chucker. His big weakness, which Ted has pointed out, and it is big is his inability to get to the free throw line. He seems to go out of his way to avoid contact, spinning, fading away, ducking arms it is baffling. I have seen very few players as athletic as he is attack the basket and draw so little contact.

    If he shot even just the league average in free throws per shot attempt he would be quite efficient. Unfortunatly I have a feeling that free throws per shot attempt tends to go down as players age not up. If he is only shooting one free throw for every eight shots now, when he is young and athletic I do not see it getting better as he ages, loses a step and settles for more jumpers.

    I still really like Chandler because even if he just remains average in terms of efficiency, he more than makes up for it in the other aspects of his game. If he can somehow figure out how to draw more contact then he could be a very good player.

    I also think people are overrating him, future all-star – no, future starter and great value at pick #23 – yes.

  42. Italian Stallion
    The only place on earth that Chandler as a prospect was even debated much was here. Everyone else on earth is universally high on him, just to varying degrees.

    Depends what you mean by “high.” I haven’t seen anyone away from this site suggest that Chandler is superstar material. Saying he’s about as good as Antoine Walker isn’t an insult — he was the 2nd-best player on 50-win teams, a starter on an NBA champion, etc. Do you think Chandler could be the centerpiece of a contending team?

    I think almost every major contender for the title needs 3 All-Star (or close) caliber players at the core and a series of role/bench players that fill in important gaps.

    I think Chandler has a chance to develop into one of the core three players (even if he’s 3rd best) for the Knicks. That view may not too far from the consensus here (maybe I’m a tad more optimistic), but every time I bring him up it seems to result in a series of responses pointing out some irrelevant stats from his rookie year, continuing shortcomings now etc… IMO without proper focus on age, extremely limited playing experience, and reports from the team.

    Most of the points are very valid. So hopefully he will correct himself over time. But this is a Knicks board. Sometimes you get the feeling that people are hoping he does poorly just so they “see I told ya so” instead of actually watching the developments and being happy about them. He’s already clearly better than early last year and people wouldn’t even concede that much a few weeks ago.

    It’s the opposite of the Balkman effect. When RB gets skunked and looks like a goofball on weed again, no one says a thing. But when he has another very good night we have to talk about what a bad move it was to give him away. People are rooting for him to be very good just so they can say how stupid Walsh was. LOL

  43. ess-dog

    Look, noone’s saying that Chandler will be Lebron James in a year. If he could get to the line maaaaaybe something between a Richard Jefferson and a Tayshun Prince? That would be the highest, highest ceiling.
    And I still wish we had Balkman too, damnit. He could provide great backup post defense once we trade Z-bo at the deadline. And I hate the Gallinari pick. Just imagine this team with Speights in the middle…

  44. Italian Stallion

    It’s kind of hard to like the Gallinari pick “given the developments”, but unfortunately Walsh didn’t have a crystal ball that told him about the future back injury. All we can do from here is hope rest heals it and he turns into an important piece of the team for next year.

  45. Renaldo Balkman's Agent

    “People are rooting for him to be very good just so they can say how stupid Walsh was. LOL”

    Not me.

    I root for him to be good so I can say how stupid you are.

  46. joeyd

    It’s kind of hard to like the Gallinari pick “given the developments”, but unfortunately Walsh didn’t have a crystal ball that told him about the future back injury. All we can do from here is hope rest heals it and he turns into an important piece of the team for next year.

    Its a little early to make a judgement on galinari. I think he will be a big time player in this league, 6-9 shooter, with GREAT ballhandling ability, killer instinct and iq dont come around often!!

    For all we know the knicks are trying to hold him out so they can play the lottery again. Dont be shocked if other guys start coming down/up with weird injuries!!

    The combination of galinari and chandler will be your fowards for the next 10 seasons. We need to add Thabeet and we would be golden!!!

  47. Ted Nelson

    IS,

    Balkman hasn’t had many clunkers… since getting fairly regular burn he had one 0 for 3 night in 11 minutes, 0’s across the board (1 stl, 1 TO) in 8 minutes, and he’s gotten into foul trouble every time he’s gotten extended minutes. Believe it or not, his PF/36 have actually gone up considerably (5.0 last season to 6.4). He really might never learn, can’t think of any promising defenders who have never gotten their fouls under control. Then again, maybe George Karl just tells him to go out there and give it his all for 20 minutes even if he fouls out. He still looks like he could be a really special defender (makes the 7th best defense in the NBA 7 points per 100 possessions better, 2.5 stls and 1.4 blks per 36). He turns the ball over too much. His .560 TS% for 12.7 pts/36 on 9.7 FGA/36 is exactly what you want from a defensive specialist, though. He hasn’t played many minutes, though, we’ll see if he can keep that up.

    I’m very pleased with WC’s development, and as I said I’m very high on him at this point (certainly a change from the beginning of the season). But the guy scores 23 points on 23 FGAs and the debate’s over? The debate over whether he shoots too much? The Celtics (a team with a first ballot HOFer, 2 other multiple All-NBA selections, arguably the best defensive PG in the league and the proudest history of any NBA franchise) must be really impressed? I didn’t just randomly bash WC, I was responding to what I considered to be undeserved praise. I do the same thing when Zach Randolph scores 20 points on 53 shots and people think he’s a long-term keeper.
    Chandler was a nice parting gift from Isiah, though.

    The thing is that Balkman is the kind of player who is generally underrated by the average fan while Chandler is the type of player who is generally overrated.

  48. Owen

    “The thing is that Balkman is the kind of player who is generally underrated by the average fan while Chandler is the type of player who is generally overrated.”

    Precisely right.

  49. Italian Stallion

    Thanks for making my point again guys. Stats may tell an analyst what happened without always explaining why, but some stats guys are as predictable as the rise of the sun. LOL

  50. Italian Stallion

    The Gallinari situation sucks, but now everybody sees what Zeke saw in Chandler.

    Zeke’s reputation as a draft “expert” is the one thing that may have been maintained during his otherwise disasterous stay in NY.

    The thing I don’t quite grasp is how he can see talent in such raw players consistently enough to be a valuable asset in that area, yet bring in such dead bodies among more experienced NBA players.

    Estimating a player’s intrinsic monetary value, building a team that fits together, selecting managers/coaches, understanding the value of a pick vs. a player, cap issues, coaching etc… Those are entirely different skills. No shock that anyone doesn’t have some or all of them.

    But when you bring in some of the experienced duds he brought in in combination with his long term record of drafting you have to wonder if he was hanging out with Balkman too much smoking the good stuff on some nights. ;-)

  51. Renaldo Balkman's Dope Dealer

    “People are rooting for him to be very good just so they can say how stupid Walsh was. LOL”
    Not me.
    I root for him to be good so I can say how stupid you are.

    Hey Balkman’s Agent,

    Tell Renaldo I have his latest shipment of “special” seeds.

  52. Duff Soviet Union

    “Zeke’s reputation as a draft “expert” is the one thing that may have been maintained during his otherwise disasterous stay in NY.”
    Um, no. Let’s see, David Lee late in the first? Very good. Channing Frye over Andrew Bynum, Mardy Collins, and to a lesser extent Balkman over Rondo? Not so much.

    “I think almost every major contender for the title needs 3 All-Star (or close) caliber players at the core and a series of role/bench players that fill in important gaps.

    I think Chandler has a chance to develop into one of the core three players (even if he’s 3rd best) for the Knicks.”

    Look, I realise Knicks fans have had it pretty tough recently and haven’t seen what too many actual all star caliber players really look like, but they do not look like Wilson Chandler. On a good team, he’s a bench scorer at best. If he keeps this up, he might technically make an all star game (like….Antoine Walker, who never would have sniffed one if people were capable of looking past points per game stats), but no he is not all star caliber. Not now, not ever.

  53. Duff Soviet Union

    “Can we at least put the Wilson Chandler debate to rest?”

    After one pretty average game? No. Todd Day and Willie Burton both had 50 point games once upon a time. What did they end up doing?

  54. Ray

    Duff..youre wrong about Chandler. Hes young , hes learning the game and hes slowly learning how to win. His development as a rook was stunted by Thomas and now hes finally showing what hes capeable. If anyone knows what to do with chandler if DAntoni. HEs going to help him grow as a player and teach him the right way. Give me another 20 year old in the NBA as impressive as Wil Chandler. IF you do come up with some its going to be a short list. Now lets put the debate to bed.

  55. clillie

    I was reading the ny post today, and saw something about Stackhouse coming to the Knicks for steph.but Jerry is only making 7 million to Steph’s 21 million. Im no Dolan, but why not we’re already wasting money on Steph, why not bite the bullet and get Stackhouse. I would love to see Stackhouse end his career in NY. And believe it or not, I think Steph would help the Mavs. Between the money the knicks waste on Curry and Marbury. Coming up with a little more than 7 million might not be too hard. Running coach mike’s fast pace offense is subject to injuries. And I think one or two more injuries to the Knicks would effect the teams outcome. why not get some people like Stackhouse who love to come off the bench, Duhon and Stackhouse in the backcourt. A blue devil and a tarheel. i love it.

  56. Duff Soviet Union

    “Give me another 20 year old in the NBA as impressive as Wil Chandler.”
    I don’t even know where to begin on that.

  57. brandon101480

    New York Knicks

    Incoming Players
    Cuttino Mobley
    Salary: $8,925,000 Years Remaining: 2
    PTS: 12.8 REB: 2.7 AST: 1.2 PER: 9.47

    Marcus Camby
    Salary: $10,000,000 Years Remaining: 2
    PTS: 7.7 REB: 9.6 AST: 1.0 PER: 18.80

    Tim Thomas
    Salary: $6,049,400 Years Remaining: 2
    PTS: 10.3 REB: 4.8 AST: 1.0 PER: 11.27

    Outgoing Players: Eddy Curry, Malik Rose, David Lee, Jamal CrawfordLos Angeles Clippers

    Incoming Players
    Eddy Curry
    Salary: $9,723,983 Years Remaining: 2

    Malik Rose
    Salary: $7,647,500 Years Remaining: 1
    PTS: 1.6 REB: 2.1 AST: 0.4 PER: -5.08

    David Lee
    Salary: $1,788,033 Years Remaining: 1
    PTS: 11.3 REB: 6.6 AST: 1.9 PER: 13.68

    Jamal Crawford
    Salary: $8,640,000 Years Remaining: 3
    PTS: 19.6 REB: 1.5 AST: 4.4 PER: 16.42

    Outgoing Players: Cuttino Mobley, Marcus Camby, Tim Thomas

  58. brandon101480

    Incoming Players
    Brad Miller
    Salary: $11,375,000 Years Remaining: 2
    PTS: 12.0 REB: 8.9 AST: 5.6 PER: 16.10

    Bobby Jackson
    Salary: $6,987,888 Years Remaining: 1
    PTS: 4.0 REB: 1.8 AST: 1.4 PER: 8.57

    Outgoing Players: Eddy Curry, Malik Rose, Mardy CollinsSacramento Kings

    Incoming Players
    Eddy Curry
    Salary: $9,723,983 Years Remaining: 2

    Malik Rose
    Salary: $7,647,500 Years Remaining: 1
    PTS: 1.6 REB: 2.1 AST: 0.4 PER: -5.08

    Mardy Collins
    Salary: $1,034,760 Years Remaining: 2
    PTS: 2.2 REB: 0.9 AST: 1.1 PER: 5.33

    Outgoing Players: Brad Miller, Bobby Jackson

  59. brandon101480

    New York Knicks

    Incoming Players
    Mark Blount
    Salary: $8,513,916 Years Remaining: 2
    PTS: 2.8 REB: 1.6 AST: 0.0 PER: 5.92

    Mario Chalmers
    Salary: $700,000 Years Remaining: 2
    PTS: 7.4 REB: 2.7 AST: 4.8 PER: 11.99

    Outgoing Players: Eddy CurryMiami Heat

    Incoming Players
    Eddy Curry
    Salary: $9,723,983 Years Remaining: 2

    Outgoing Players: Mark Blount, Mario Chalmers

  60. brandon101480

    New York Knicks

    Incoming Players
    Al Harrington
    Salary: $9,226,250 Years Remaining: 1
    PTS: 12.4 REB: 5.6 AST: 2.0 PER: 9.80

    Brandan Wright
    Salary: $2,497,320 Years Remaining: 2
    PTS: 7.1 REB: 4.4 AST: 0.1 PER: 19.53

    Outgoing Players: Eddy Curry, Mardy CollinsGolden State Warriors

    Incoming Players
    Eddy Curry
    Salary: $9,723,983 Years Remaining: 2

    Mardy Collins
    Salary: $1,034,760 Years Remaining: 2
    PTS: 2.2 REB: 0.9 AST: 1.1 PER: 5.33

  61. brandon101480

    New York Knicks

    Incoming Players
    Josh Howard
    Salary: $9,945,000 Years Remaining: 2
    PTS: 20.3 REB: 8.2 AST: 1.6 PER: 18.10

    Outgoing Players: David Lee, Jamal CrawfordDallas Mavericks

    Incoming Players
    David Lee
    Salary: $1,788,033 Years Remaining: 1
    PTS: 11.3 REB: 6.6 AST: 1.9 PER: 13.68

    Jamal Crawford
    Salary: $8,640,000 Years Remaining: 3
    PTS: 19.6 REB: 1.5 AST: 4.4 PER: 16.42

    Outgoing Players: Josh Howard

  62. brandon101480

    Leandro Barbosa
    Salary: $6,100,000 Years Remaining: 3
    PTS: 10.9 REB: 3.0 AST: 1.6 PER: 16.19

    Raja Bell
    Salary: $5,000,000 Years Remaining: 2
    PTS: 9.8 REB: 2.3 AST: 1.3 PER: 9.11

    Outgoing Players: David Lee, Jamal CrawfordPhoenix Suns

    Incoming Players
    David Lee
    Salary: $1,788,033 Years Remaining: 1
    PTS: 11.3 REB: 6.6 AST: 1.9 PER: 13.68

    Jamal Crawford
    Salary: $8,640,000 Years Remaining: 3
    PTS: 19.6 REB: 1.5 AST: 4.4 PER: 16.42

    Outgoing Players: Leandro Barbosa, Raja Bell

  63. brandon101480

    New York Knicks

    Incoming Players
    Brendan Haywood
    Salary: $5,500,000 Years Remaining: 2

    Antonio Daniels
    Salary: $6,200,000 Years Remaining: 2
    PTS: 4.6 REB: 1.4 AST: 4.0 PER: 9.89

    Outgoing Players: Eddy Curry, Mardy CollinsWashington Wizards

    Incoming Players
    Eddy Curry
    Salary: $9,723,983 Years Remaining: 2

    Mardy Collins
    Salary: $1,034,760 Years Remaining: 2
    PTS: 2.2 REB: 0.9 AST: 1.1 PER: 5.33

    Outgoing Players: Brendan Haywood

  64. greattradeidea

    New York Knicks

    Incoming Players
    Andrew Bynum
    Salary: $2,769,300 Years Remaining: 4
    PTS: 10.8 REB: 8.9 AST: 1.8 PER: 20.27

    Kobe Bryant
    Salary: $21,262,500 Years Remaining: 2
    PTS: 24.3 REB: 5.1 AST: 4.0 PER: 24.37

    LeBron James
    Salary: $14,410,581 Years Remaining: 2
    PTS: 29.9 REB: 8.0 AST: 7.0 PER: 33.61

    Pau Gasol
    Salary: $15,106,000 Years Remaining: 3
    PTS: 17.6 REB: 10.1 AST: 3.1 PER: 21.42

    Outgoing Players: Quentin Richardson, Zach Randolph, Stephon Marbury, Jared Jeffries, Jerome JamesCleveland Cavaliers

    Incoming Players
    Zach Randolph
    Salary: $14,666,667 Years Remaining: 3
    PTS: 20.5 REB: 12.5 AST: 1.4 PER: 20.40

    Outgoing Players: LeBron JamesLos Angeles Lakers

    Incoming Players
    Quentin Richardson
    Salary: $8,685,500 Years Remaining: 2
    PTS: 10.0 REB: 5.2 AST: 1.4 PER: 11.37

    Stephon Marbury
    Salary: $20,840,625 Years Remaining: 1

    Jared Jeffries
    Salary: $6,049,400 Years Remaining: 3

    Jerome James
    Salary: $6,200,000 Years Remaining: 1

    Outgoing Players: Andrew Bynum, Kobe Bryant, Pau Gasol

  65. Renaldo Balkman's Agent

    Stallion-

    You seem highly critical of my client’s mind-altering recreational drug use.

    When you write “when RB gets skunked and looks like a goofball on weed”, you are misinterpreting the cause of his malaise. The games he gets skunked and looks like a goofball are, in fact, the games that the league reps are collecting urine at, and Renaldo is subsequently seeing the game at a mere mortal’s pace and not his customary 8 steps ahead. I assure you, Mr. Balkman’s religious sacraments do not make him a worse ball player.

    In fact, I have obtained a complete list of the 10% of NBA players that Charles Oakley claimed DID’T smoke dope before games. They are:

    Mardy Collins
    Kenny Walker
    Jason Hart
    Jerrod Jeffries
    Charles Smith
    Eric Snow
    Yinka Dare
    Kenny Thomas
    Juwan Oldham
    Yi Jianilan
    Malik Rose
    Brian Cardinal
    Eddy Curry

    So wherever Renaldo Balkman’s Dope Dealer may be now, may I suggest he deal some of his seeds our way. Not only does it make one a better basketball player…

    …it also helps ease the lingering pain of brain surgery.

  66. Ted Nelson

    Thanks for making my point again guys. Stats may tell an analyst what happened without always explaining why, but some stats guys are as predictable as the rise of the sun. LOL

    I’m not exactly sure what that’s supposed to mean. I specifically pointed out the flaws in Balkman’s game so far this season (he also has no J, but I think we’ve already established that), but which game do you want me to point to and say he must have been stoned out of his mind for that one? I pointed out the 2 where he’s struggled since getting into the back-end of the rotation. Last night he played an unspectacular 8:37 minutes in a Denver win as well.

    I’m not sure what debate you’re referring to on Chandler. I never questioned whether he’s a promising prospect, and I’ve gone out of my way to point out every time he has a good game and that he’s one of the Knicks best players. When he scores a total of 23 points on 23 shots, gets to the line for 1 FTA, is 2 of 6 in the paint, played all but 3 minutes of the quarter the Knicks got creamed, and 4 for 9 for 8 points in the 2nd half in a game the Knicks lose isn’t the time to end a debate over how good he’ll be, IMO. I have no idea how good he’ll be, but I’m not just going to sit here and say he’s better than I expected (and certainly in the good to very good range for a 21 year old at this point) so who cares how good he actually is or becomes.

    If you’re referring to the certain players TEND to be underrated and certain players overrated comment… I stand behind it 100%. Doesn’t mean that Balkman is better than Chandler, I don’t think he is. High-volume scorers tend to be overrated and low volume scorers tend to be underrated, especially when they’re good defenders and/or score fairly efficiently. Guys who move well without the ball tend to be underrated, while guys who “create their own shot” tend to be overrated. Great defenders in general tend to be underrated, and anyone who can’t score is usually lumped into a similar group of players who are good defenders unless they cause lots of turnovers (then they’re great defenders). I could say, don’t know if I would, that Mardy Collins is underrated and Allen Iverson is overrated, wouldn’t mean I think Mardy’s better than AI. I think Chandler is a far superior offensive player than Balkman, but I also think Balkman is slightly underrated offensively and a better defender than Chandler.

    The only reason I still harp on Balkman is because they gave him away (2nd rounder… they’re up for sale every year, even 1st rounders are… $1 million, come on it’s the Knicks). He was a player I felt they could clearly use (their best defender, their best shot blocker, good at moving without the ball, a good finisher at the basket), and they didn’t even give it until training camp. On the other hand, they have several players on the roster they never intend to play. When he helps the Nuggets win games, it’s pretty hard not to sit here and think “that could, no should, have been the Knicks…” D’Antoni got signed and right away I thought, wow Balkman and Chandler are going to fit perfectly as versatile forward in this system. We never got to see if that was the case for Balkman outside of summer league. Do I think he would have been more than an end of rotation player, probably not, but he might be one of the best spot defenders in the league.

  67. Ted Nelson

    “I also think Balkman is slightly underrated offensively”

    By this I mean he’s not completely useless offensively and given his defense he can still have a positive impact, not that he’s a good offensive player.

  68. Ray

    Wow. Are we still talking about Balkman? Has he not snowboarded out of your hearts yet? Do some of you miss his long flowing dreadlocks that much?

  69. o_boogie

    “The only reason I still harp on Balkman is because they gave him away (2nd rounder… they’re up for sale every year, even 1st rounders are… $1 million, come on it’s the Knicks). He was a player I felt they could clearly use (their best defender, their best shot blocker, good at moving without the ball, a good finisher at the basket), and they didn’t even give it until training camp. On the other hand, they have several players on the roster they never intend to play. ”

    Ted I agree with your points regarding Balkman’s value. However, there may be extenuating circumstances the public wasn’t privy to that forced Walsh to move him. For example, he reported to camp out of shape, seditious attitude during practice, fighting with teammates, etc. I have a hard time believing said examples, but its something we’ll never know. More likely, D’Antoni was not impressed by his lack of offensive versaility and viewed him as expendable. I would have preferred we bought out Marbury so we could have kept Balkman, but sh!t happens.

    ——-

    As far as WC, yes his shot selection is poor (his spin move drives me nuts, just go up to the hoop strong!) and yes he doesn’t get to the FT line enough. Give the guy a break. It’s his first full season. Rational minds would give him a mulligan for last year considering the craziness surrounding the team. Granted, we all want instant results now, but it is going to take time to adjust to the pro game. He is young and well coached and definitely has a high ceiling. If he doesn’t show improvement by 2010, maybe it is time to move on. Until then, lets enjoy the fact we are over .500 and found someone to gobble up the majority of Q-Rich’s minutes.

  70. joeyd
    The Gallinari situation sucks, but now everybody sees what Zeke saw in Chandler.

    Zeke’s reputation as a draft “expert” is the one thing that may have been maintained during his otherwise disasterous stay in NY.
    The thing I don’t quite grasp is how he can see talent in such raw players consistently enough to be a valuable asset in that area, yet bring in such dead bodies among more experienced NBA players.
    Estimating a player’s intrinsic monetary value, building a team that fits together, selecting managers/coaches, understanding the value of a pick vs. a player, cap issues, coaching etc… Those are entirely different skills. No shock that anyone doesn’t have some or all of them.
    But when you bring in some of the experienced duds he brought in in combination with his long term record of drafting you have to wonder if he was hanging out with Balkman too much smoking the good stuff on some nights. ;-)

    Stallion, good point about zeke’s talent evaluating ability, i disagree about the vets he traded for being stiffs, i think most nba gm’s make many questionable moves.

    I think the curry deal was actually a good one. I know that sounds crazy, but curry was a pre prime 21 year old 7 footer with dominant post scoring ability. you give up draft picks for that because you expect to not be in the lottery for another 10 years. Curry spent his college years in chicago, and was ready to take the next step unfortunately we didnt realize that the only jumping he did was on offense.

    q- rich and crawford were neccesary to to help marbury, zach randolph was a good move if you had another deal lined up to move him, he may have been distracted from that objective that summer. then the starting five of zach, curry, qrich, crawford and marbury was completely horrible. Jeffries also a good pick up, its funny but when he was running that 5 out there, he had 5 good defenders on the bench. That why the second team routinely made up for the starters defecits.

    Zeke most definately underestimated chemistry and defense, go figure, it won him 2 nba titles. He should have built a defensive team around marbury, instead of putting a bunch of scorers around him.

    Remember marbury did carry this team to the playoffs with a bunch of stiffs around him.

  71. o_boogie

    “Zeke’s reputation as a draft “expert” is the one thing that may have been maintained during his otherwise disasterous stay in NY.”

    Isiah has been solid, but he has also passed up some immense talent. Our failure to find a superstar in the lottery has been our achilles heel since the Patrick Ewing days.

    2005:
    -Passed up Bynum and Granger for Frye. Awful.
    -Took Dijon Thompson in 2nd round instead of Amir Johnson
    -Acquiring Nate and Lee were real solid

    2006:
    -Passed up Farmar, Rondo, Sergio Rodriguez by taking Balkman at 21. Awful.
    -Passed up Craig Smith, Millsap, and Powe by taking Mardy Collin at 29. Awful.

    2007:
    -Took WC at 21. Good job. Could have snatched Rudy Fernandez at 21, but that didn’t fill our needs with Crawford at SG.

  72. caleb

    Nice roundup O_Boogie..

    I do think Balkman was a fine pick – maybe he’d have still been there at 29, but he’s been better than a typical #20, and if he ever stays healthy he’s a lot better. Of course I’d rather have Rondo but as they say, hindsight is 20/20.

    You could be harsher on the Lee pick — he took Nate and Frye ahead of him…

    He had nice hits early on his career, like Camby and especially McGrady at #8.

    All in all I’d say he’s been above average as a drafter, but not by much.

  73. Caleb

    fyi Hollinger’s playoff projections are up — based on the season so far, his computer predicts the Knicks will land at 36-46, and have a 16.7% chance of making the playoffs.

    He doesn’t explain, but it sounds about right to me. We’re a lot better than last year, but the easy schedule has puffed up the record. Only the Heat, Timberwolves and Magic have played an easier schedule, by W-L record.

    The biggest eye-opener on the chart is San Antonio missing the playoffs by quite a few games, although their chances will get a lot better when Ginobili comes back. Dallas is projected to make it..

  74. Ted Nelson

    The Gallinari situation sucks, but now everybody sees what Zeke saw in Chandler.

    Zeke’s reputation as a draft “expert” is the one thing that may have been maintained during his otherwise disasterous stay in NY.The thing I don’t quite grasp is how he can see talent in such raw players consistently enough to be a valuable asset in that area, yet bring in such dead bodies among more experienced NBA players.Estimating a player’s intrinsic monetary value, building a team that fits together, selecting managers/coaches, understanding the value of a pick vs. a player, cap issues, coaching etc… Those are entirely different skills. No shock that anyone doesn’t have some or all of them.But when you bring in some of the experienced duds he brought in in combination with his long term record of drafting you have to wonder if he was hanging out with Balkman too much smoking the good stuff on some nights. ;-)

    Stallion, good point about zeke’s talent evaluating ability, i disagree about the vets he traded for being stiffs, i think most nba gm’s make many questionable moves.
    I think the curry deal was actually a good one. I know that sounds crazy, but curry was a pre prime 21 year old 7 footer with dominant post scoring ability. you give up draft picks for that because you expect to not be in the lottery for another 10 years. Curry spent his college years in chicago, and was ready to take the next step unfortunately we didnt realize that the only jumping he did was on offense.
    q- rich and crawford were neccesary to to help marbury, zach randolph was a good move if you had another deal lined up to move him, he may have been distracted from that objective that summer. then the starting five of zach, curry, qrich, crawford and marbury was completely horrible. Jeffries also a good pick up, its funny but when he was running that 5 out there, he had 5 good defenders on the bench. That why the second team routinely made up for the starters defecits.
    Zeke most definately underestimated chemistry and defense, go figure, it won him 2 nba titles. He should have built a defensive team around marbury, instead of putting a bunch of scorers around him.
    Remember marbury did carry this team to the playoffs with a bunch of stiffs around him.

    Zeke made all the right moves in the draft, free agency, and trades, but somehow he still ended up with the sorriest team in NBA history (bang for buck wise)… interesting theory.

  75. Owen

    “I think the curry deal was actually a good one. I know that sounds crazy, but curry was a pre prime 21 year old 7 footer with dominant post scoring ability.”

    Whoa there….

    I am going to do what I always do when someone says something like that…

    http://www.knickerblogger.net/?p=358

  76. Ben R

    I think judging a drafter on who they passed up is unfair. Every year there is a couple of players that fall way down in the draft and become very good. Every team passes up these players some teams twice, I think a more fair way to judge a person’s talent in terms of drafting is to look at value for draft position, that is where Zeke has done very well.

    Every single pick of Isiah’s, except Frye and to a lesser extent Collins, has been good value for draft position.

    If you go down the list:

    Ariza – great value for a 2nd rounder
    Frye – average value for a #8 pick
    Robinson – good value for the #21
    Lee – great value for the #30
    Balkman – good value for the #20
    Collins – average for the #29
    Chandler – great value for the #23

    That is a very good record, no striaght up busts and all except maybe Collins should have long productive careers, add to that that only one pick was before #20 and you have a very impressive draft record. If you also take into account his record in Toronto and Zeke has been very impressive as a drafter. (Dijon Thompson was Pheonix’s pick not Isiah’s)

    The problem is as a gm he seemed to do whatever he could to limit his opportunities by trading away picks and as a coach by mishandling his young players. I cannot stand Isiah but I think objectivly he is at worst a good drafter and at best a great one.

  77. Caleb

    Frye is terrible value for the #8, although on the whole it was a pretty weak draft…

    And I know you don’t expect much from the #29 pick, but I don’t think Collins meets even that modest standard.

  78. Nick C.

    How could you possibly say Chandler is great value. The guy’s played meaningful minutes in all of 10 games and you are going to deem him a success. It’s way too soon to pass judgement for good or ill, thoguh it certainly is fun. Otherwise, I must be harsh but any first round pick should be a rotation player by his second season. So by that standard Balkman and Nate are average and only Lee is above average among the first rounders.

  79. o_boogie

    Something to keep an eye on is Walsh making picks with medical issues. The biggest blemish on his record was picking Jonathan Bender who was a total bust because of knee problems. Will Gallinari be the same? I gotta say I have a sick feeling in my stomach when I hear about back problems at the age of 19…

    Hollinger wrote an interesting ESPN insider article right after Oden got microfracture surgery. The jist was Portland should have taken Durant instead given Oden’s medical history; the wrist issue in college, x-rays revealing lot of scar tissue in his spine, one leg being an inch shorter than the other. He said that Oden’s risk/reward didn’t justify using the first pick, even though Oden could turn out to be the next David Robinson.

    I wonder if Donnie Walsh has been ignoring medical problems or not weighing them as heavily as he should when pre-screening high lottery talent.

  80. Ted Nelson

    I think judging a drafter on who they passed up is unfair.

    I agree Zeke did a good job in the draft, but I think you have to consider who else was on the board. For example, take Mardy Collins: you can say that there were only about 4 guys drafted after him who have been any good which excuses the pick, but you can also say that Daniel Gibson was one of those guys and plays the same position. (One large reason Zeke probably took Mardy over Gibson is because he though Mardy filled a need for a big defensive minded guard who could handle the ball, guard 2s and didn’t need to shoot much to be efficient: besides sabatoging himself, drafting for need hurt Zeke. He took Frye and Collins specifically to fill needs and also Balkman over Rondo because he thought he “needed” a perimeter defender. It was sort of a case of moral hazard where he had so many resources that he thought he “needed” a C, ok I’ll get Frye, James, and Curry all in the same offseason one has to work out, “need” a perimeter stopper? Balkman and Jeffries in the same offseason.) There’s the whole Zeke could have gotten Rondo AND Balkman possibility, but I don’t even want to get into that because I have no idea… Guys like Todd Fuller and Rafael Araujo are probably much better examples of what I’m trying to say than Collins (just went with a Knicks example).

    If the next five players drafted after a bust were All-Stars (especially if they play the same position) you were either extremely unlucky or drafted worse than your peers, if 99% of picks taken after you selected were busts then it’s easily excusable that you took a bust. Most of the times it’s somewhere in between, and I do agree you have to go with who they actually took and not who they could have taken but you also have to put it in context: there’s an opportunity cost to every pick.

    I’d say that Frye is solidly below average for a 6-10 pick. I’d also call Mardy slightly below average for a #29 pick, but completely excusable. I have to say it, we have yet to see what kind of value Chandler was at #23 (certainly looks like great value so far, though).

  81. TDM

    Regarding the Gallo pick, and assuming we were drafting for need, I don’t see any small forwards that were picked after Gallo that we could have taken with a straight face. The only two I can identify are Nicolas Batum (#25) and L.R. Mbah a Moute (#37). No one at the time would have picked either with the 6th pick of the draft.

    If we were picking the best player available, with the benefit of hindsight, there were some other potential picks – B. Lopez, Bayless, Jason Thompson, Speights, JaVale McGee, etc.

    It may be too soon to close the book on Gallo. But if his back injury persists throughout his career, this could be viewed as a major bust considering the talent that was on the board.

  82. Ted Nelson

    Something to keep an eye on is Walsh making picks with medical issues. The biggest blemish on his record was picking Jonathan Bender who was a total bust because of knee problems. Will Gallinari be the same? I gotta say I have a sick feeling in my stomach when I hear about back problems at the age of 19…
    Hollinger wrote an interesting ESPN insider article right after Oden got microfracture surgery. The jist was Portland should have taken Durant instead given Oden’s medical history; the wrist issue in college, x-rays revealing lot of scar tissue in his spine, one leg being an inch shorter than the other. He said that Oden’s risk/reward didn’t justify using the first pick, even though Oden could turn out to be the next David Robinson.
    I wonder if Donnie Walsh has been ignoring medical problems or not weighing them as heavily as he should when pre-screening high lottery talent.

    I don’t think there was any indication that Danilo might injure his back: he played a full professional season in Italy and as far as I know showed no suseptability to injury. As far as I know it was a total fluke. I have literally not seen one person assert otherwise, but who knows.

    At this point I’m not sure taking Kevin Durant would be a good move even if Oden never plays another NBA game. I’ll have to check out the article, but at the moment I have to disagree. What was Hollinger’s stance at the time of the draft? (To be fair, or maybe unfair in this case, I’ll nail him for it either way… either for trying to justify his position or for having the same info as Portland at the time, agreeing with them at the time, and suddenly trying to re-write history.)

  83. Police Clyde

    How sweet it is.
    Clyde out again.
    He’s got to be on his way out.

    The opportunity to make the Knicks look bad is not something he would have missed voluntarily. If you have access and notice all the games he’s missed in the passed, including last year when the Knicks went on a three game winning streak; yep they had one of those. Clyde/boo generator was knowhere to be found. He avoids the easy wins like the plague. But this Celtic game was not an easy prediction. With Garnett out maybe he thought the Knicks might pull it off, but I don’t think, he thought it was obvious.

    Whatever the reason, I am glad he was not there. The last Knicks Celtic game Clyde covered, or it might have been the one before last.
    House and Marbury got in to it. Exchanging words. Clyde the Boo Generator (although I must say, he’s been much more tolerable these past games. Still a fake though. Every so often he reveals his true position) He said to his audience that someone should stop Maubury from arguing with House. That he should not be doing that from the court. Now, let me tell how I saw that exchange. Someone should have told House to shut up. He was on the bench, he was not part of the game and he had assistant coaches at arms length that could have stopped him. You see the difference. Clyde, the boo generator see’s things differently. As I have said in the past, see for yourself. The way I saw it is the way a true Knicks fan would have seen it. Or someone who did not want the Knicks season to end early. There was a game two days ago where Crawford shot was blocked and Gus and new guy did not even acknowledge it. There was another, I think it was the game before this one that chandlers shot was thrown back. same thing, no digital replay, no showcase, no negative comments. These guy’s just call it as it is. Constructive criticism. If you count the amount of times Clyde/the boo generator has refereed to the opposing team as Hero’s to there fans, you would be amazed. Clyde’s, been more tolerable, but every so often he’ll throw in a key word to make the Knicks look bad. He has to Go.

    Let’s Go Knicks!!!!!!!

  84. Solomon Grundy

    Grundy agree with Police Clyde. Think about it. Clyde sit on sidelines and not help Knicks for 28 years now. Knicks win title when Clyde plays, and none since. Grundy Theory: Clyde says bad things about Knicks. Knick players get sad & cry – and can NO SEE BASKET THROUGH TEARY EYES! Therefor Grundy asserts Clyde is cause of Knicks demise.

  85. ess-dog

    You know who sucks is the Bulls. They looked pitiful against Portland last night, and Portland was not at their best. They don’t have one player playing above expectations… Rose looks pretty good for his age, but that’s it. How bad does that Aldridge trade look right now? I don’t know why, I just felt like I had to rag on the Bulls for a second.
    As far as the Knicks go, I like where we are at. I still think Orlando, Cleveland, Golden State, and the Clips are all going to be asking about Z-bo’s services at the trade deadline. The Heat, Dallas, S.A. and Memphis all will be asking about Curry hopefully. If we can trade both of these for shorter contracts, I will be ecstatic (hopefully, we’ll get draft picks.) If we can trade either Jeffries or Crawford, I’ll wet me pants with glee. Eyes on the prize people!

  86. TDM

    Knick players get sad & cry – and can NO SEE BASKET THROUGH TEARY EYES! Therefor Grundy asserts Clyde is cause of Knicks demise.

    Hey, what do you know – it rhymes. I will not eat them in a box, I will not eat them with a fox . . .

  87. Police Clyde

    Jon Abbey

    did Clyde steal your girlfriend?

    Is that your way of saying that Isiah stole yours.

    Clyde is a Boo generator!

  88. Police Clyde

    Listen I am just keeping it real.

    He was wrong for saying Marbury should shu up, when house is openly talking trash from the bench. How do you single out Marbury in that exchange.

    Clyde is an instigator.
    I don’t care what he’s accomplished in the past.

    Isiah has done great things for the NBA to.
    I don’t see people bitting there tounge when it came to him.

    Now you I recognize. Did Clyde log on as the others.

  89. Ben R

    Nick C. – Look over the last ten years and see how many first round picks fail to even make it to a second contract. If your first rounder is in the rotation and playing well in his second season it was probably a good pick. If he was picked out of the lottery it definatly was.

    Even if Chandler does not improve one bit for the rest of his career he is still a great value pick at #23. Balkman and Nate even if they never become more than very good bench players are still good values for picks in the 20’s. People expect way too much out of draft picks, most never become more than average players and if you draft a player after about #10 and he plays 10+ years in the NBA it was a good pick.

    As for Frye he is not a great player but looking at him in Portland and over his whole career he looks like he will be a career rotation guy and might even be a starter down the road, I would say that is about average for a late lottery pick, maybe slightly below average but not by much. As for Collins he is at worst average for a #29 because most players picked that late fail to do anything, I would also not be surprised if he gets a second contract just on the strength of his defense and rebounding. He will never be a good player but in my opinion he is not that far from an 8th-9th man. If he can just get a little more consistant he could be there.

  90. Ted Nelson

    Ben R,

    I like Frye and agree he’s a rotation player, but after looking at the 6-10 picks from the past several drafts I think he’s average.

    2001: Battier, Griffin, Diop, Rodney White, Joe Johnson (Frye=T3rd-4th)
    2002: Dejuan Wagner, Nene, Wilcox, Amare, Caron (Frye=5th)
    2003: Kaman, Hinrich, Ford, Sweetney, Hayes (Frye=4th)
    2004: Childress, Deng, Araujo, Igoudala, Jackson (Frye=4th)
    2005: Webster, Villanueva, Frye, Diogu, Bynum (Frye=3rd-4th…)
    2006: Roy, Foye, Gay, O’Bryant, Sene (Frye=3rd)
    2007: Yi, Brewer, Wright, Noah, Hawes (Frye=4th???)
    7 year average= 3.8
    Frye has been really up and down so far, though, so we’ll have to see where he ends up.

    “most players picked that late fail to do anything”

    What has Collins done again?

    2001: Tinsley, Parker, Hassell, Arenas, Omar Cook (Collins=5th)
    2002: Chris Jeffries, Dan Dickau, Steve Logan, Roger Mason, Robert Archibald (Collins= T2nd)
    2003: Kendrick Perkins, Leandrinho, Josh Howard, Lampe, Kapono (Collins= 5th)
    2004: Sasha Vujacic, Beno Udrih, David Harrison, Anderson Varejao, Jackson Vroman (Collins=4th)
    2005: Kleiza, Mahinmi, Simien, David Lee, Stoudamire (Collins: 3rd-4th)
    2006: Sergio Rodriguez, Maurice Ager, Mardy Collins, Joel Freeland, James White (Collins=2nd)
    2007: Arron Afflalo, Tiago Splitter, Alondo Tucker, Petteri Koponen, Carl Landry (too early to call, IMO).
    6 year average: 3.5

    So, I think it’s fair to call them both average.

  91. Ben R

    Ted – Great breakdown, it just goes to show how much of a crap shoot the draft really is. Outside the top 3, top 5 in great drafts, getting anything more than average NBA player is a good pick. Outside of the lottery getting even a rotation player is good and after about 25-30 getting even a fringe bench player is a solid pick.

    Of course there are the Boozers and Ginoblis but they come around once every couple of drafts and even the Millsaps and Arizas are only one or two out of the last 30 picks each year. The fact that Isiah’s worst picks have been between average and slightly below average and his best have far exceeded expectations goes to show how good of a drafter he really was. It’s a shame he was so bad at everything else.

    If he had simply used the Knicks picks he had I can only imagine how good we could be right now. With his draft record adding another 3 picks all in the lottery to the Knicks, it makes me really sad.

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