Diagnosing Patient Frye: What Ails Our Sophomore Slumper?

Healthy, Wealthy, and Young: The Birth of A New Era
Standing 6?11?, being only 23 years-old, and with a promising rookie campaign under his belt, Channing Frye seemed destined to finally fill the gaping productivity hole at the Knicks? power forward position. The Knicks haven?t employed a tall, talented four since the glory days of Charles Oakley. Having suffered through a platoon of the short (Anthony Mason, Larry Johnson), the short and useless (Othella Harrington, Clarence Weatherspoon, Malik Rose, Maurice Taylor), and the short but perennially out of shape (Mike Sweetney), Knicks fans envisioned a bright future of crisp pick-and-rolls, a smooth jumper, and a reasonable defensive presence.

The average Knick fan was in love with Frye, but those fluent in statistical analysis were downright infatuated with him. Frye produced a very healthy rookie PER (18.12) ranking him second in his class, superior to the more heralded big men drafted ahead of him?Andrew Bogut, Marvin Williams, and Charlie Villanueva. The PER was promising in general, but also healthy in its components. Frye?s skill set was broad, which is an underrated quality and a strong indicator of future growth. He created shots, hit the ones he did, kept his turnovers in check, and rebounded well. Frye averaged 20 points per 40 minutes and it?s not hard to see why: he could shoot with range, was developing a low-post game, and hit his free throws. He?s a young big man who could score, and those don?t grow on trees. In all, the only blight on his record was a dismal Curry-esque assist ratio.

It wasn?t youth and inexperience that stood in Frye?s way. His major obstacles were his coach and his health. In his relentless effort to sabotage the Knicks? season, ?Coach? Larry Brown decided to bury Frye behind the inferior, older, shorter, and ultimately unemployment-bound Maurice Taylor. When Frye was finally able to wrestle himself some playing time, he sprained his knee and missed the last month of the season. In the off-season Larry Brown was replaced with the man who drafted Frye, while the months off provided time to heal. Knicks fans indulged high, and arguably, merited hopes that Frye would continue to improve and squeeze the Knicks into the playoffs of a historically weak conference.

We have thus far been grossly disappointed. To label Frye a disaster two-thirds through his sophomore campaign is painfully appropriate. Far from being a fringe All-Star candidate, Frye is posting a paltry 11.74 PER, and having trouble justifying a rotation slot, much less a starting job. Frye’s drop of -6.38 PER is downright ridiculous. We had no reason to believe Frye?s production would plummet, since none of Frye?s metrics were outliers to suggest a regression to the mean.

Paging Dr. Stats
There?s nothing about Frye’s rookie statistics that suggest ?luck? instead of ?skill.? Frye does nearly everything well (except pass), instead of one or two things spectacularly. In other words, he?s more Elton Brand than Kyle Korver. But Frye?s game is ailing badly. What?s the diagnosis?

Examining Frye?s performance record, reveals that for the most part Frye 2.0 is the same player as Frye 1.0. His turnover rate this season is not only healthy, but slightly improved. His usage rate is down slightly, but nothing alarming. His assist ratio is as small as ever, no change there (and unfortunately no improvement). We run into the first problem with a decreased rebound rate. A downtick that?s bad but not dramatic. However Frye?s main malady is his outright implosion in True Shooting Percentage. Frye went from a better than league average 54.1% to an atrociously bad 47.1%. That?s not a decline, that?s a crash.

There are three components that factor into TS%: 3-pt FGs, 2-pt FGs, and Free Throws. Frye doesn’t take threes, and his free throw percentage is even better this year, so it’s easy to say that his drop in FG% from .477 to .438 is the culprit. At first glance, Frye seems to be losing his shooting touch.

But let’s hold on there, because what FT% doesn’t show is his rate of attempts. Last year Frye shot 5.8 free throws per 40 minutes. This year he’s down to 2.3, which is down a staggering 60%! Frye went from taking a free throw for every two field goals, to shooting one for every four. Essentially, Frye has eliminated free throws from his offensive repertoire. Frye can shoot the rock, but relying on a mid-range jumper for the majority of your shots is career suicide. Take the master of the mid-range, Richard Hamilton. What keeps his offensive numbers up are his prodigious rate of free throw attempts, not just the accuracy of his shot. Ironically, the same plight of all ?J? no drive, is what made Frye?s predecessor, Mo Taylor, such an inefficient offensive player. After calling for Frye to replace Taylor, like a nightmare we?ve just watched the former turn into the latter.

What?s funny is the attacking the basket inclination that has escaped Frye has downright possessed his best friend, David Lee. Lee leads the league in field goal percentage despite lacking any talent as a shooter. Dunks and lay ups are the highest percentage shot, an obvious fact that Lee embraces but Frye seems to have forgotten.

The case of the disappearing free throws extends to a bout of, “Where are the rebounds?” Frye’s rebounding numbers were unimpressive in college. Red flags were raised on draft day, but the Knicks insisted he’d be fine, and his first year in the NBA he was. His rookie rate of 14.2 was reasonable, putting him in line with the second-tiered rebounders at his position, like Andrew Bogut, Rasheed Wallace, and Chris Wilcox. It was nothing to write home about, but Frye was still an above-average performer. This year, his rate has declined to 12.3%, placing him in the unenviable company of Mark Blount and Mikki Moore, the former being infamous for his pathetic work ethic and the latter for his slight frame.

What went wrong? A rebound percentage is made of two components: Offensive and Defensive Rates. In fact, Frye’s defensive rebounding has improved this year, going from 5.9 defensive rebounds per 40 minutes to 6.2. On the other hand, his offensive rebounding is down by a third, from 3.5 per 40 minutes to 2.2. As his friend the Freshman-Sophomore Game MVP demonstrates, offensive rebounds are a function of activity around the basket. They don’t come to you, you go to them.

Looking closely at his numbers?both advanced and traditional?reveal the problem: Frye is not attacking the basket. It?s not that he can?t, it?s that he won?t.

Take Two of These and Call Me In the Morning
In a sense, Frye?s problems are good problems to have. He demonstrated in his rookie season a capacity to grab offensive rebounds and draw fouls, but for some reason he?s gone away from these aspects of his game. Frye is too young to suggest his talent has abandoned him. Rather it seems, he?s switched his strategy. This is a problem of habit not skill, and should be, if any basketball problems can be, correctable. If Frye is sick, he doesn?t need a doctor, he needs a psychologist.

It would seem to reason that if Frye rededicates himself to attacking the basket, his Free Throw rates, field goal percentage, and offensive rebounds will improve. Frye has the talent to drive to the basket, the question is will he embrace that style, reverse his collapse, and once again establish himself as one of the league’s best young forwards.

Michael Zannettis regularly posts on his website www.michaelzannettis.com He addresses topics as diverse as the culture of evolution, possession law, and communication theory. He lives in Astoria and has a fond childhood memory of when the NBA Finals were interrupted by a White Ford Bronco in a low-speed car chase.

“Uuuuugggghhhhh!” [SLAM] “Good Grief”

Just like Charlie Brown laying flat on his back after Lucy has yanked the ball away, the Knicks found themselves flat on their collective back after stinking up a mostly empty Wachovia Center last night.

In a rare Larry Brown-esque moment, Isiah Thomas publicly chastised his team, questioning its toughness, claiming that the fans want it more than the players do. In their second game in two nights the Knicks looked lethargic after pulling out to an early lead.

Without top reserve David Lee (flu), followed by the in-game loss of Q-Rich (shoulder), Isiah had to go deep into his bench where he found a surprisingly effective Mardy Collins and the usually energetic Renaldo Balkman. The bench whittled a 20 point lead down to five with plenty of time to complete a comeback but the starters just never got a key stop (or any other kind of stop) after the opening few minutes of the game.

On one hand I am sorely disappointed with this loss as a fan. On the other I want to fight the urge to overreact after blowout wins or blowout losses. If I wanted to bend waaay over backward to give NY the benefit of the doubt I might point out that even though Philly is a dreadful team they nonetheless appear to be a difficult matchup for NY, particularly on the perimeter. But my back doesn’t bend that far backwards. Tough matchup or not, this Philly team should ever lead NY by 20+ points, not when most of NY’s top players are healthy. Yet it keeps happening. It’s maddening.

It’s yet another indicator of how dreadfully immature this team is. In teaching, a clear indicator of a student’s maturity is his or her response to a good grade on the first exam. The mature student sees an “A” as a confirmation of good habits, and recognizes that consistency is the key. The immature student believes an “A” is a license to coast for a couple weeks. He or she thinks that mastering chapters 1-3 means they already know every doggone thing. Right now, this is the Knicks. They got a B+ against Orlando, followed it up with a good first quarter in Philly, then took the rest of the night off. Sigh. When will this team learn? I hope soon. Time is running out.

Hollinger On Tonight’s Game

From Today’s New York Sun:

Furthermore, check out New York’s upcoming schedule: After tonight, the ‘Bockers won’t play a team with a winning record until March 10. That’s eight straight games against the league’s doormats if you’re scoring at home, and it will be a huge disappointment if the locals don’t claim at least five of them.

Notice I said “after tonight,” because this is what I’ve been leading up to; tonight might be the biggest game of the Knicks’ season. They host the Magic at MSG, and with a win they’ll close the gap to three games with 28 left to play for both sides, including a re-match in New York City on March 26.

Considering the huge disparity in the clubs’ upcoming schedules after tonight, it’s possible that if the Knicks win they could catch Orlando within the next two weeks. Plus, since New York already beat the Magic on February 3 in the teams’ only other meeting, the Knicks would hold the tiebreaker edge with a win tonight.

On the other hand, a loss tonight would be crushing. It would put the Knicks five games out, and in addition, it would require them to win the March rematch to hold the tiebreaker.

Some stats for today’s game. Note I switched the Offense & Defense so that they’ll align under each other (Orlando Offense vs. New York Defense).

Team Four Factors
  PACE   OFFENSE   DEFENSE
TYPE
   
ORLANDO
88.6   105.8 49.9 19.0 28.6 27.1   105.4 47.8 16.9 26.4 27.7
RANK
25   23 10 30 11 7   7 7 12 11 28
  PACE   DEFENSE   OFFENSE
TYPE
   
KNICKS
90.4   111.2 50.2 14.9 26.9 24.9   108.3 49.5 18.6 32.1 27.2
RANK
16   26 21 30 13 17   11 16 29 1 5