Knicks Morning News (2019.06.21)

For anyone curious, I remain skeptical of RJ Barrett. He has some serious flaws in his game.

About Wilkes:

UCLA forward Kris Wilkes has signed a two-way deal with the New York Knicks, according to ESPN’s Tim Bontemps.
Wilkes averaged 17.4 points on 43.3 percent shooting and 4.8 rebounds during his final UCLA season.
The 6’6″, 210-pound ex-Bruin impressed at the NBA Scouting Combine, per ESPN’s Jonathan Givony:

Jonathan Givony @DraftExpress
UCLA’s Kris Wilkes also dropping glimpses of his undeniable talent by making 3s off the dribble, attacking the rim in transition, and making plays defensively. Had an uneven year, but clearly has some things to work with physically and skill wise.

Maybe they’ll find another Iso-Zo…

In the immortal words of the Monty Python “Always Look on the Bright Side of Life”… 🙂

I admit I know nothing about this Michigan kid, but boy to Mills and Perry have a type:

Brazdeikis earned a spot in the late second round thanks to his aggressive scoring instincts and toughness, which helped him earn Big Ten freshmen of the year honors. The Lithuanian-Canadian will need to improve his defense and perimeter shooting consistency to stick in the NBA.

I admit I know nothing about this Michigan kid, but boy to Mills and Perry have a type

And that’s what I was complaining about in the last thread. If we’re honest, though, he looks already better than Knox, so, I don’t know, it’s good? 🙁

Im almost surprised they didn’t skip RJ because he passes too much. Does our FO know A/S/B production is important for wing prospects?

Feeling good about the draft last night, as well as the 2-way Kris Wilkes and UDFA Amir Hinton.

I watched a fair amount of michigan basketball this past season and Iggy was really the offensive centerpiece of that team. Knows how to score the ball, has nice touch around the rim, and is really decisive. I didn’t realize what a good shooter he was – Wasserman posted some really impressive synergy numbers for him (92nd percentile in spot up, 84th percentile PNR roll man, 89th percentile as a cutter). Sure he’s not a great athlete and probably will struggle defensively, but has good size, competitiveness, and what else do you want out of the 47th pick.

Kris Wilkes looks like a crazy athlete with excellent size and quicks.

Amir Hinton dominated D2 basketball for what that’s worth (cool article here by the way). He only shot 34% from college 3 but shot 89% on 360 free throws (in just 29 games) for a FTA/FGA of 0.71 — yowza. 2.3 steals/game is nice. And he has an NBA body already. All in D2 but still impressive.

One thing for sure, it looks like Perry/Mills are all about the wings and on athletic upside.

This front office is really quite bad at draft talent evaluation. They just want scoring guards and wings!

I mean, they came out of the draft last year with Knox, Mitchell Robinson, and Allonzo Trier, and you’re telling me you know they’re really bad at draft evaluation?

Knox was really bad last year, but other than SGA, it’s hard to see a guy that they obviously should have taken over him. Mikal Bridges was so good for PHX that they promptly drafted his clone a year later in Cam Johnson.

This whole board has PTSD from the last 20 years. If anything, the Knicks have drafted very well over this last disastrous period. It’s just all the other FO moves that have generally been bad.

@13

There are NCAA water boys with better statistical profiles than Knox had coming out of college. He was literally the worst possible pick at that position–anyone would have been better, and the guys picked after him up to 21 we’re all better prospects (besides Jerome Robinson). And now they draft more scoring wings and guards who can’t do anything else (RJ excepted of course) when we already have RJ, Knox, Trier (who’s still quite bad by the way, despite our loving him), and DSJ. We didn’t buy or trade for any extra seconds in a draft where they were being thrown around. Why exactly do you have confidence in Perry/Mills draft skills, when it’s looking increasingly like they just got lucky in drafting Mitch?

Iggy loves it when opponents hate him

“I love the hate I get,” he continued with: “It motivates me more. So thank you to everyone who’s hating on us and the team as well as myself.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/colleges/michigans-ignas-brazdeikis-is-loathed-by-opposing-fans–and-loves-every-insult/2019/01/28/8ee59eca-21ac-11e9-8b59-0a28f2191131_story.html?noredirect=on&utm_term=.6acd503a6e07

Fun article

berman’s article today claims that it was fizdale who “drove home” the knox pick last year. did we know that already?

Next guy who dares to call me out when I start on Fiz magic rants will have to fight me in Temecula

Anyway I think we should be relieved that we’re not remotely near the bottom five in front office reliability as of now: have you seen the Suns’ draft day strategy? The Wizards picking Hachimura 9th? The Heat needing at least 7 minuyes (WTF) to select Tyler Herro? The Magic going again for the same type of player – this time coming off an ACL tear?

Not to mention the colossal cap space blunder by Pelinka, of course.

It’s hard not to believe Vonleh and Mitch were extremely lucky accidents.

Especially if you have a preconceived narrative. Hence, all moves that fit the narrative are “typical” and all that don’t are “extremely lucky accidents.”

Was Kadeem Allen an extremely lucky accident too? Was playing DeAndre and Mitch over Kanter lucky? Where does trading Willy for 2 2nd rounders fit into the narrative? Does Kornet’s shot-blocking count as defense?

Where does the fact that the entire league values offense over defense fit in this narrative? Didn’t the defensive-minded Celtics just draft Romeo Langford? Didn’t the analytics-minded Spurs just pass on Clark for a more offensive-minded player?

The other thing is that since the league clearly values offense over defense right now, would it make sense that lower-cost defensive-minded guys are easier to find outside the draft process?

Z-Man, sorry if I touched a nerve there. A narrative gets only built in reverse from what you see. There’s nothing in the talent evaluation skills of this front office that inspires confidence, but that doesn’t mean they’re the worst.

The Kadeem Allen “acquisition” is quite clearly a lucky accident, since he was kept as a two-way player until the end of the season (unlike Ellenson and Jenkins, who are by all accounts worse players and don’t play a position of need).

Anyway I’m not here to say Perry is the worst. He clearly is not. I like his trade savviness and general steadiness he conferred to the team pretty much since day 1. I’m definitely not unhappy we have him. But I like to call an apple an apple, and there are areas of improvement in roster building that are at the same time glaring and huge.

I actually thought the Magic played the draft well – too a good player who won’t contribute much next year, likely leaving them in the lottery in a strong draft (probably) at a moment when odds on rising from the middle of the pack are higher. Sort of a Process Lite move.

Let’s say they’re sub-judice until the start of the next season. If they make a few moves the Okeke selection could make perfectly sense.

I mean, they came out of the draft last year with Knox, Mitchell Robinson, and Allonzo Trier, and you’re telling me you know they’re really bad at draft evaluation?

I don’t think they’re bad at talent evaluation, but I’m worried about their talent acquisition philosophy. They’re identifying decent players, they’re just largely all the same type. It’s like I tell my friend who is 60 pounds overweight: “maybe mix in a salad”. Except in the Knicks case, it’s a two-way player. Or someone who can pass.

Maybe Bec you can teach defense and you can’t teach offense. You can teach will and it’s harder to teach skills?

Maybe Bec you can teach defense and you can’t teach offense.

I don’t personally think this is true but I feel pretty confident our FO thinks it is.

FWIW, the consistent philosophy for Perry and Mills has been to bet on athletic upside and trust Fizdale and the development staff to grow them as players.

The Kadeem Allen “acquisition” is quite clearly a lucky accident, since he was kept as a two-way player until the end of the season (unlike Ellenson and Jenkins, who are by all accounts worse players and don’t play a position of need).

This makes no sense at all. A two-way contract is maybe the most team-friendly contract that exists out there. Why wouldn’t you keep Allen on a 2-way if you could?

Jenkins was ineligible for a 2-way as someone with >4 years of service.

Ellenson’s contract was literally just potential trade fodder if we needed it. It has no bearing at all on whether the FO thinks he is better than Kadeem Allen.

I agree with Z-man that while Perry certainly hasn’t been perfect, it’s pretty hard to argue with his record so far. Jury is still out on Knox. Mudiay wasn’t a great use of a 2nd round pick, for sure. But other than that, what are people complaining about? He turned the absolutely toxic contract of Carmelo (a contract that other teams had to give up assets to get rid of <1 year later) into Mitchell Robinson. He made perhaps the ballsiest trade of last season by jettisoning a malcontent in KP literally 5 minutes after KP and Janis tried to pull a power play on him (I would love to have seen the look on their faces), and in so doing got a couple 1st rounders and dumped Mills's THJ albatross (meanwhile the Mavs are trying to get out from under that now). If not for KD's unfortunate injury, we very well could have been signing KD and Kyrie this offseason. I think people need to look at Perry outside the context of what happened before he came.

Cheers to us, Strat, for still having Frank this morning!

We won draft night! 🙂

I want to look at him for one more year while he’s healthy. If he doesn’t improve, then we can throw in the towel.

I think we know what the issue is with talent evaluation in this front office. They overvalue scoring, shot creation, and athleticism relative to defense. They just talk about defense.

Setting aside top two way players, if you want defense you have to accumulate players like Frank, Vonleh, Mikal Bridges etc.. They come in with the energy, length, and the instincts to defend multiple positions. Then it takes years of hard to work to hopefully turn them into low/moderate usage efficient scorers to go along with the defense. We get guys like Trier, Knox, Hezonja, Mudiay etc.. that can create on offense but that will take years of hard work (if ever) to not be a turn style every night and score efficiently.

IMO, you start by looking for two way players, but when those aren’t available (because everyone wants them), you have to have a balanced set of priorities after that. We don’t. We lean heavily towards offense and guys that will never be really good defenders.

i just think our process really sucks…. teams like the raptors and nuggets continually hit doubles every year in the draft and take the right risks and the results are in the roster they have compiled… we managed to do that exactly once.. with the mitch pick… and it’s looking more and more likely that it was just dumb luck…

i saw on twitter how on the espn coverage they listed our needs as… everything (starters and bench)… well aside from frank… they’ve hand selected this roster… and for the most part there are head scratchers up and down the roster….

this offseason will likely define if they’re actually decent at evaluating talent and whether they just suck at the draft….. if we don’t grab an a-lister like kyrie or kawhi then their job becomes much harder and that’s where their skill will show…. i’m not all that optimistic…

The more I look at it, the more I think Brazdeikis was a pretty good pick. Hilariously, he has a pretty similar statistical profile to Cam Johnson (who went 11th overall and is 4 years older).

The problem I have is it just doesn’t seem like we were operating like a team that needs to maximize the amount of young talent on the roster. There were multiple salary dump opportunities, second rounders were being sold left and right, and intriguing guys like Ponds and Jontay Porter were undrafted. We didn’t take advantage of any of it!

I suppose if Wilkes and the DII fellow I’ve never heard of show something I’ll be wrong, but it’s extremely difficult for me to see them being better than a lot of guys who were available. We’ll see, but my opinion of Perry took a fairly steep dive last night.

Unless I’m mistaken (which I clearly can be and most often am) Kadeem Allen is an unrestricted free agent.

he’s restricted unless the knicks don’t make a QO which i think can be only $50K if he stays on a 2-way or vet min if he switches to a regular contract

he’s restricted unless the knicks don’t make a QO which i think can be only $50K if he stays on a 2-way or vet min if he switches to a regular contract

Well then I deserve a harsh scolding, I should have figured he was restricted. Frank is 100% right on this.

I’ll say it again about Knox…he is proficient at the single most important skill in today’s NBA: shooting the 3-ball. He also got to the line at a decent clip and should evolve into a decent FT shooter. I thought his overall game improved towards the end of the season…he rebounded better and had some nice defensive plays in transition. The overall numbers were ugly, but at worst, the jury is out on him. He should never have been starting and playing the big minutes he did, but the fact that he survived without missing much time is a positive regarding his durability (as opposed to KP and Frank, who couldn’t stay on the court.) Knox has nice tools and measurables to build on around his 3-pt shot and FTr and he seems like a grounded, dedicated kid who is still both physically and emotionally immature (not in a bad way, just seems like he’d rather play video games than go out with the big boys.) I’m looking forward to seeing whether he added enough to his game and body to become at least a valuable trade asset. Same with Frank, if he develops a consistent 36% 3-point shot and can keep from getting banged up every 5 games, then he’s an asset. Not worth the money we’re paying him, but something.

this whole shit about these interviews being such a difference maker just spanks of hubris and self deception.

FIZDALE MAGIC

I think athleticism and length are so important to defense that the players who project well on that end are generally the guys drafted high. By the end the arent many left, except Bol Bol apparently.

@49

I haven’t thrown in the towel on Knox either, but I’m concerned about the defensive side of the ball. He’s already too slow to stay in front of quick SFs or switch down and he’s still way too weak to defend PFs inside or switch up.

If we give him the benefit of the doubt and say he’ll fill out and get a lot stronger over the next few years, then he’s a future stretch PF if we are patient enough to wait 2-4 years. But still, he has some of the worst defensive instincts you are going to find and a suspect motor to match. It’s hard for me to imagine him ever not being a liability on defense. But you are right, he’ll knock down 3s and score.

On the top free agents’ front, why wouldn’t KD stay a Warrior now that the narrative’s done a 180? Guy is perceived as a true warrior who risked everything for the team. And it’s clear GSW wasn’t winning the title without KD. Durant’s gotta realize his injury/age is gonna make it tough for him to be the alpha to take NYK to promised land. He should just take that lucrative 5th year from GSW. He could rehab in NY and focus on his business interests this year.

So we’ve been promised a meeting with Kawhi. I’m pessimistic about Fiz as a coach but there’s nobody I’d rather have in that conference room than Fiz. Kyrie and Kawhi are inscrutable, it’s possible they could be swayed by FIZDALE MAGIC™. There have been reports that some people in Kawhi’s camp have been urging him to be a Knick. Just get NYK to the finals and his profile and marketability will be in Bron stratosphere (way moreso than Clippers or Nets).

I’ll say it again about Knox…he is proficient at the single most important skill in today’s NBA: shooting the 3-ball.

we don’t know if he’s proficient. he shot .343 from 3 last year. that’s below the league average of 35.5% and well below the average of 36.8% for players with a least 300 attempts. there are 198 players who shot at least 33% on at least 100 3PA attempts last year (knox is #160), which comes to over 6 per team. the jury is out.

Fiz is a bit of a snake oil salesman. I see him as a placeholder who will help in the recruiting process but should be let go when the team becomes serious about winning.

I think “snake oil salesman” is a bit much (maybe “used car salesman”?), but yeah, otherwise I totally agree. His ability to sell himself is by far his greatest skill.

I don’t know about Kawhi, but Kyrie definitely looks like a guy who can be swayed, and maybe this time he could really work his magic.

“we don’t know if he’s proficient. he shot .343 from 3 last year. that’s below the league average of 35.5% and well below the average of 36.8% for players with a least 300 attempts. there are 198 players who shot at least 33% on at least 100 3PA attempts last year (knox is #160), which comes to over 6 per team. the jury is out.”

Fair, the jury is out. But considering that he was 18 when the season started and that he shot 35.4% after the all-star break (when rookies playing big minutes usually hit the rookie wall) and that he averaged 5 attempts a game, I’d say that he is more likely trending towards a league average or above 3-pt shooter. So maybe the word “promising” is better than “proficient” in that context.

well their process that skipped robinson also resulted in a really good roster which i would love to trade straight up with ours…. that they overlooked mitch in lieu of porter is not some huge oversight…. i probably would have done the same thing…. and i still would have a much better draft record than the knicks when i look at prospects in my spare time instead of actually getting paid to pay attention…

Their “really good” roster is only “really good” because they (by Farfa’s definition) were graced by the “extremely lucky accident” of landing a top 5-10 NBA player deep in the second round. Without Jokic, they are mediocre. And this board has trashed Jamal Murray on a regular basis.

I really enjoyed RJ Barrett’s press conference last night..and that suit was sharp…shaaaap! The kid just oozes confidence that doesn’t seem forced. I hope it serves him well in year 1..he’s gonna need it.

As far as the 2nd pick, I like Brazdeikis as an energy/instant offense guy off the bench, but I would have LOVED it if we were able to trade up for Paschall instead. I think we need a power guy, and I doubt if DJ would come back to back up Mitch- as Mitch has earned the right to start. I wonder though, does this mean Vonleh and Kornet are coming back to back Mitch up?

I agree about the “type” issue with the FO. But the argument in their defense is that efficient shot creation from the wing is the most important thing in today’s NBA. Since our roster is so barren of talent especially in that area they want to take as many swings at getting a player at that position that over performs their projection. So now they have Knox, RJ, Mich kid etc to try and get someone in that position who can be a legitimate NBA starter.

Yeah, this really is the offseason where we will really know where we stand with Perry. It’s sort of like how Phil couldn’t really be judged until he had a clean offseason to work with….and he then fucked that up (the Afflalo/Williams/Lopez offseason).

The test is not being in this position. The test is what you do when/if all the attractive free agents say no because the team still sucks. That’s the position Donnie Walsh and Phil found themselves in.

Walsh panicked and signed Amare hoping he would help attract other free agents later and the other decided to rebuild around Melo’s window and roll some of the cap space over.

The good news is that we have no windows now unless we sign the injured and probably declining free agent star and then feel compelled to blow things up to fit his window.

The potentially good and bad news is that we have a shitload of free cap space. If no one really good wants it, there are only so many opportunities to take on bad contracts that actually make sense given the duration of the contract and asset being offered to take it. If we do take them, it also means we’ll have a pile of hot garbage on the team for a few years waiting for those deals to expire and won’t be able to add anyone good into cap space. That’s why rolling it over can also make sense depending on the details.

I don’t know about Kawhi, but Kyrie definitely looks like a guy who can be swayed, and maybe this time he could really work his magic.

I heard someone on a podcast yesterday say something to the effect Kyrie was set on going to the Nyets, but when he heard they weren’t interested in him unless Durant came as a package, his delicate sensibilities were hurt and the Knicks are now back as the favorite. I don’t know where these guys get their stuff from, but who knows.

I’m just pointing out that we can use the word “could” even if something is 99% likely to not happen.

99% is probably a tad strong, but I get that it was hyperbole. 🙂

I think when a player is very young, you should assume some growth and development within a typical range and keep in mind that this specific player “could” exceed or not reach that typical development level. After that, you debating what “average development” is and does this player have any attributes that make it more or less likely he will develop than the average player.

For example, if the thing that’s holding a player back is athleticism he probably has a problem. If it’s physical maturity and strength, change his diet and get him in the gym and we’ll probably be fine.

Personally, I like the combination of intelligence and work ethic more than athleticism and other physical gifts, but if you are giving me the whole package I’m willing to wait.

just don’t think he’s going to make some kind of great leap into being a contributor on a serious basketball team. I

If you define success by Perry in low end and undrafted picks this way then no matter how good Perry is he will probably fail because to succeed those picks would have “be on a seriously good” basketball team. If you mean a true contender by that phrasing, There’s almost no way we will be that in the next two years unless we get really lucky in free agency.

But the argument in their defense is that efficient shot creation from the wing is the most important thing in today’s NBA.

Not from players who can’t defend.

The most important thing in today’s NBA is not being a zero on either side of the ball.

The most important thing in today’s NBA is not being a zero on either side of the ball.

Oh, how we forget easily “Can’t play Kanter”

Durant is in some sort of decline phase

He just tore his Achilles and will be 32 next time he takes a field goal attempt.

https://twitter.com/kirkgoldsberry/status/1141856260188463106/photo/1

i’m normally not a big proponent of shot charts but the one goldsberry posted was a bit telling for a variety of reasons…. one… rj got and made the shots he wants and generally has a good feel about where he should be shooting… that’s good… two… he really sucks when shooting on the right side of the court… coupled with his weak drive with his offhand probably means something…. but i don’t view it as major and absolutely fixable but something to monitor as he develops….

i am pretty optimistic about his prospects although there’s a fair amount of reason to be leery but on the whole he should be a plus…. in a probably rich man’s version of jrich kind of way… he’s coming in with a decent amount of talent and it seems like he has that kobe/jordan mentality of working hard…. he put on a lot of muscle when he came on at duke and really focused on his jumper…. his jumper as inconsistent as it was in duke was probably worse in his hs days…. so if you have doubts about who he is at the moment i think that’s fair… but there’s good reason that he can smooth out those rough edges in his game….

i have reservations about the rest of the draft process and i definitely preferred culver over rj… but we drafted a decent player and when you draft decent players things can change for the better… and hopefully this is the start of that….

@82

I’ll grant that Durant was probably not going all out in the regular season this year so he would be fresh and healthy for the playoffs. At his age that’s probably smart because you can’t go all out all year. But he’ll be quite a bit older towards the end of that contract.

He also just ruptured his achilles and he’ll be 32 when he starts playing again. He’s declining now for sure let alone at the end of the contract.

Not going all out and resting yourself more in the regular season in order to be effective in the playoffs is definitely a sign of decline. Just because it was effective doesn’t mean it’s not a sign of decline.

Not going all out and resting yourself more in the regular season in order to be effective in the playoffs is definitely a sign of decline. Just because it was effective doesn’t mean it’s not a sign of decline.

Not going all out in meaningless game is smart. Christ the great Pop and all smart organizations don’t even dress players every night just for this purpose.

And pray tell how much did Kevin “decline” this past season. Or let me ask it another way. On June first 2019 how many players in the NBA/world were better than Kevin Durant? One? Two maybe? That’s some bloody decline!

Five thirty right on R.J. Barrett.

Some see DeMar DeRozan. Others see the most overrated player in college basketball. In other words, he’ll fit in nicely in New York.

Durant wasn’t declining prior to his injure so you are FOS per usual.

Here are some BPM numbers on the last three years of Kevin Durant.

BPM, regular season

8.0, 5.6, 4.3

BPM, postseason

8.7, 6.4, 4.7

Who’s full of shit, again?

power, bullying people and explosion.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AMeGQfVXcBg

Are you serious? This dude is a downhill dunker in traffic. He uses his amazing length and height WITH his explosiveness. He’s incredibly aggressive and athletic. The idea that he’s some kind of Andre Miller seven-footer is patently absurd.

The decline phase of Durant will still be MUCH better than most NBA players. He’s still in decline AND COMING OFF ONE OF THE WORST INJURIES A BASKETBALL PLAYER CAN HAVE.

Never let the facts get in the way of a good discussion. The average recovery length of an NBA player with this injury is 269 days. Kobe and Wes Mathews both made it back in less than 8 months so it is not unreasonable to expect him to be fully ready around March 15th.

If you think he’s going to rush back to play with this garbage Knicks team after rushing back may have contributed to the injury to begin with I think you are very likely to be wrong. It’s more likely to be just like KP. There’s no point to pushing for an early return date when the team stinks and would be better off losing games. It would be more likely with the Warriors, but even there I doubt it. At his age, he’s declining from here.

Five thirty eight compares Barrett to both Carmelo and Diangelo Russell as similar players. Those are two quite different players, so it seems to me there is no good comp for him. But either one is reasonable or very good value for the number three pick.

By the way, it was reported again today that it was Fizdale that pushed hard for Knox over Bridges or whoever else they had in mind. So for better or worse, they were on the fence and that one is on Fizdale.

You know what’s great, though? Not signing Durant to a max and then having his Achilles blow up.

hard nosed, enthusiastic guy.

I’m fine with it too, but I’m getting some real Ron Baker vibes out here.

Or someone who can pass.

Is this not the single thing that Barrett is supposed to actually be good at?

Bron made some good points about development above. If the FO is recognizing that development was not what it should have been last season that’s a good sign.

Here are some BPM numbers on the last three years of Kevin Durant.

So we can cherry pick a single metric and make a concise generalization from that , eh!

I guess Mickey Mantle was in his decline phase after 1956 because he never matched his ridiculous Triple Crown year.

I will stipulate he will never have another season like 2014 but if he is still a top 5 player in the game (prior to injury) aren’t you stretching the definition of decline?

The Knicks are mired in a seriously bad place, consider:

Memphis has sucked for about two years and managed to reload with Jaren Jackson, Ja Morant, and Clarke.

New York has sucked this entire century and look at their roster.

Fuck me . …..Dolan’s Razor, it’s a real thing

Is it good to tear your achilles? Dr. Neptune investigates.

As probably the only person here who has managed professional athletes (race horses) for 40 years, I can tell you from experience load bearing flexor tendon injuries suck. They are generally not career ending.

And… I am not advocating signing Durant. I was the guy for the past few days advocating trying to buy up anyone’s first rounder that wanted to keep under the tax line (Charlotte) or wanted more space for UFA’s. I am perfectly happy with that.

However it seems as though (by their actions last night) they feel they have a good chance of still signing Durant and KI. I don’t think that is a terrible idea.

As much of a loon as Kyrie seems to be, he is still one of the top guards in the game in his prime. He is worthy of a max. Even an injured Durant I see as coming back as a Reggie Miller on steroids type player. Otherworldly shooters like Durant and Miller age gracefully ( reggie had a ws/48 = .189 and a BPM =2.9 as a 38 year old FFS!). They have similar skill sets and physical stature except Durant was better at all phases of the game. at 6′ 11″ Durant will never have difficulty getting his shot off and his range is virtually unlimited. That will not change. His defense (as it is ) is predicated on absurd length, not strength or quickness.

The history of Achilles injuries is known as far as I know so the re-injury risk is minimal and I think Durant will still be an excellent player for the next 4 years. Will he be peak Durant…. no, but he will be the best player to play here since peak Ewing….. yes. The combination of those two if any of the current players progress will give us 3 excellent seasons of hoops around here.

Its generally agreed upon that the best players in the league are worth significantly more than the max. Isn’t it possible he declined and is still worth the max.

The whole point of signing megastars like Kevin Durant is that they’re supposed to give you SURPLUS value beyond the max. If you pay Durant $40M and he gives you $60M of production, you’re winning. If you pay him $40M and he gives you $40M worth of production, not so much. If you pay $40M and get $30M of production, that’s not a good contract.

If you think he’s going to rush back to play with this garbage Knicks team after rushing back may have contributed to the injury to begin with I think you are very likely to be wrong

Who said anything about rushing back??? I merely stated the facts that the average rehab time for these injuries is much less than everyone is assuming. I assume Wes Mathews and Rudy Gay took the prudent approach with their careers, too…. don’t you think. The average becomes much less if you exclude Cousins (100 days longer than average) who is a load of a man and likely didn’t take his rehab as seriously as some others. Plus I;m sure employer who has 150M wrapped up in him will insist on him being fully healed and won’t throw him out there half assed like GS.

So we can cherry pick a single metric and make a concise generalization from that , eh!

RAPM showed a precipitous dropoff in 2017-18. I don’t have 2018-19 numbers but I’d be amazed if he were still top 5.

I guess Mickey Mantle was in his decline phase after 1956 because he never matched his ridiculous Triple Crown year.

I’m going to cite the bullshit asymmetry principle in my decision to totally disregard this ridiculous comparison.

I will stipulate he will never have another season like 2014 but if he is still a top 5 player in the game (prior to injury) aren’t you stretching the definition of decline?

No, I’m not. It’s like you fail to see that there will be emerging superstars in this league for the duration of Durant’s contract, who will supplant the old guard. Durant is not going to just be this fixed-value entity in a declining league. We’ve now got multiple 6’10″+ point guards and a 19-year-old Charles Barkley clone and Pascal Siakam looking like Scottie Pippen yet to hit his peak. We’ve got James Harden scoring 35+ on excellent efficiency for like months on end. And the future stars keep pouring in, year after year, to diminish the relative value of those aging superstars. This happens to everyone. Durant is no exception, especially post-injury.

Durant must remain a top-10 player if he wants to earn the enormous max he’s entitled to. Hell, he was on a team that nearly weathered the loss of an elite two-way player on their way to another championship. What do you think it’ll be like for the lowly, talent-bereft Knicks if Durant ends up a ~3 BPM player instead of the ~8 you’d expect from him “before decline?”

I don’t see how you can look at a 32-year-old with a ruptured Achilles and see “return to form” in the forecast. It defies all reason, no matter how good he once was.

If you pay $40M and get $30M of production, that’s not a good contract.

Unless it’s on a team that needs every bit of help it can to go from, say, 55 wins to 62 wins, and also has no alternate uses for that money, like the Warriors. The issue for the Warriors is, “Do we want Durant to give us 5 WAR for $70M in salary and tax money, or do we want to save $70M and get absolutely nothing more than an open roster slot and a minimum contract in return?”

The Knicks have a tabula rasa right now. Durant is a final piece for a deep, talented playoff team, not a foundational piece on a team full of upside-laden, intriguing, high-ceiling rookie-contract players who throw bricks like their lives depend on it.

He is not a franchise player anymore. You cannot do a rebuild with Durant as the centerpiece.

Yes and every 15 pick in the NBA draft should be Kawahi. If you spend 40M and get 40M of return you are generally far ahead of the game. The team that signs Kyrie to a max will be just fine. Its the teams that sign Noah and Hardaway to 72M contracts that are in trouble.

If you spend $40M and get $40M back, you are not far ahead of the game. That’s a ridiculous assertion. Categorically false.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-kevin-durants-injury-means-for-kd-the-finals-and-free-agency/

That’s not a comprehensive list, but the pattern seems obvious.

HCJ,
Two things jump out: the guys older than 30 take longer; and Wilkins was a beast…

“Bargs was pretty tough. I mean, he really hit the floor HARD.”

+1 That was an epic crash

That’s not a comprehensive list, but the pattern seems obvious.

I’m still irked at the inclusion of all the older players who clearly had access to much worse surgeries than the players of today. This isn’t to say that Durant will heal awesomely, but I just don’t see the point of including data points for medical recoveries from 20 year ago. They’re essentially immaterial.

I’m stunned to see how many people think that signing Durant would be a good idea. Despite medical advances, a torn Achilles is the worst injury an athlete could suffer. There is a 90% chance that, in two years, his contract would be a complete albatross.

Brian,

in NBA players, Amin et al. [81] found that 7/18 players (39%) who suffered an Achilles rupture and underwent surgical repair from 1988 to 2011 never returned to play in the NBA. Those who did return to play were also found to have a significant decrease in both playing time and performance.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5344857/

I’ve tried to articulate this previously but probably did so poorly. If we were going full rebuild then it’s probably a minimum 3 year time horizon. So there is a scenario where if you sign Durant, let your existing young players mature another year to analyze their ability and keep all your assets (6 1st rounders and 6 2nd rounders over the next 4 years) that you can quasi compete and put a better shine on the franchise w Durant for the final 3 years of his deal while continuing the rebuild in the background. You can use the remaining cap space on expirings to gain more assets or on young promising players like Russell or you can roll the dice on Kyrie as well. The only real downside to that strategy is your own picks aren’t as good but one assumes they aren’t going to tank forever anyway so you don’t lose a ton of value. The idea that HCJ espouses about there always being the next gen of talent still works bc that talent will be there in 4 years after some middling success with the additional youth on the roster from those picks. If it turns out KD is still top 10 then bonus and sell the assets and compete for a title. Does this make any sense?

Same with Brandon Clarke. Outstanding offensive player but he didn’t slip to the 20s bc front offices don’t understand analytics. They’re worried about his ability to defend.

This is the first I’ve heard of this concern about a 6’7.25” guy with 6.3 blk per 100 and the third-ranked DBPM in the NCAA being unable to defend. Synergy had him 99th percentile offense and 91st defense.

The issue with Clarke is that he looks like a smallball 5 on offense and unable to guard bigs on defense. He would be an exceptional defender against SG, SF and PFs. Taller PGs and small Cs too.

n NBA players, Amin et al. [81] found that 7/18 players (39%) who suffered an Achilles rupture and underwent surgical repair from 1988 to 2011 never returned to play in the NBA. Those who did return to play were also found to have a significant decrease in both playing time and performance.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5344857/

That’s what I mean, though – what is the point of including players from 1988 in such a study for today? Theres is no way that Kevin Durant and LaPhonso Ellis had the same surgery. Why compare their recovery? Rudy Gay and DeMarcus Cousins are the better comparisons.

Option C sucks. 1-year deals just clog cap space and prevent deals renting cap space from happening. Also, if the guy is good, he is on the market in 1 year at a higher basis.

so the thing with achilles tears is that yea a lot of ppl don’t come back and get out of the nba but those guys were bad players to begin with… and when you’re on the fringe or just not very good to begin with you can’t really afford to lose any athletic ability….

someone like kobe might not have been necessarily in sharp decline already but he was at an age where he could have seen a large decline just due to age…. that he tore his achilles and the age he was at… he was probably not likely to see anything close to where he was before….

Durant is significantly better than kobe…. and while it’s hard to imagine him getting back to peak durant … he will probably be still a fine player….

for all the folks who says chris paul’s contract is an albatross…. the guy still put up a ws48 of .172 and that’s still one of the best pg’s in the league….. durant doesn’t have cp3’s injury problems… achilles are worse…. but it’s easy to see him still perform at a high level.. maybe not mvp level but still one of the best sfs in the league….

whether that’s worthy of a max contract…. i’m still not sure…. but i don’t think it’s a slam dunk that it’s a bad idea… although i was never really big on maxing kd to begin with but that’s more for watchability reasons than the merits….

@19 that’s an hour and a half from me. And you did call for Fiz’s head during a season where we clearly benefited from losing. So bring it on!!!

(J/k. Your recaps were great)
(P.S. Every time I see signs for Temecula on the highw..err I mean freeway, I think about this running gag that started on P&T)

plan c was always an option for moving forward…we got teased a bit with option a, and, now going with the kids may seem like a bit of a letdown…

derrick
sasha
brandon
michael
alexey
mario

and many others have all had their knick moments to cause us to cheer…like a used car lot on a street with a bunch of much better, newer dealerships – you need to somehow entice folks to pay attention…

which is to say – good chance we don’t see more than 30 wins in a season until the 2021 – 2022 season…what’s another few years, right?

Was not real happy to read Begley’s thing about the Knicks not renting cap space.
What I don’t know is exactly what that means.
Would they take on someone like Marvin Williams, who is theoretically still a useful player while getting an asset?
Do they just mean that they’re not taking on contracts that go into 2020-2021?
Or are they totally opposed to the idea of renting cap space? That would be super dumb.

Okay, if “Plan C” is a real thing, and the Knicks do it (as they did during Phil’s tenure), then it is time for a little Common Denominator analysis. Who’s been here through all of this? Dolan and Mills.

I’ll actually start considering the idea that Phil was just a figurehead while here, and Mills really made all the calls. Phil collected his paycheck, showed up for events, did a few stupid tweets, then hit the bong or whatever. He was sort of like Henry Blake in MASH, but not nearly as likable. Frank Burns (Mills) is really running the Knicks’ show.

Please don’t let this be the case.

He was sort of like Henry Blake in MASH, but not nearly as likable. Frank Burns (Mills) is really running the Knicks’ show.

🙂

wait a minute – is fiz hotlips?

As far as the 2nd pick, I like Brazdeikis as an energy/instant offense guy off the bench, but I would have LOVED it if we were able to trade up for Paschall instead. I think we need a power guy, and I doubt if DJ would come back to back up Mitch- as Mitch has earned the right to start. I wonder though, does this mean Vonleh and Kornet are coming back to back Mitch up?

For my money, I think the MitchRob, Kornet, Vonleh trio is the best part of our roster as it is currently constructed by far.

Rudy Gay and DeMarcus Cousins are the better comparisons.

This doesn’t say much. Cousins looked shot in the postseason. He couldn’t move laterally to defend anyone.

Maybe Perry means they will move on to “promising player” signings like D’Angelo Russell – guys that are young enough to be fairly easily dealt again if need be. Maybe Brogdon fits that mold as well, idk.
If they don’t get those guys either, then they’ll have to fill cap space with guys like Hezonja who basically want an extended tryout. Those suck, but they’re better than giving an average guy a 4-year contract for big money.

We have our dream come true at KB. They’re finally acknowledging that there are no shortcuts. Third year in a row with a lottery pick. We’re getting NBA players in the second round and as UDFA’s. We have no albatross contracts at present. Have we gotten the best value from our picks? Well, Mitch looks promising, RJ does as well. If those two fulfill all star potential we have a bunch of money to fill out the roster should other prospects crash and burn.

For all of RJ Barrett’s flaws, he does come with two secondary skills: he’s a great rebounder for a wing, and he’s a very good playmaker for a wing who racks up assists.

Lots of young guys have the “if he learns to shoot he’ll be good” tag attached to them and RJ is no exception, but in his case it’s true: if he does improve the 3-point shooting, he could be a really nice wing. There’s a plausible path to RJ developing into an All-Star.

Yeah, there’s plenty of reasons to be optimistic about Barrett, which is much more than we had when they picked Knox, so it’s not bad. It’s disheartening that they haven’t made any other good moves, but it’s not like the draft was a total disaster.

I’m totally serious when I say that I envision a 20-5-5 season on 53 TS% for RJ. That’s not a good or bad thing, but his numbers will turn a lot of heads.

booked on the under, specifically the 20 and 53TS coexisting

If Barrett scores 20 PPG on .530 TS% as a 19-year-old rookie, I will piss my pants with joy. I will soak them through.

RJ is such a great kid that I feel bad for him that he ended up in the Dolan cesspool.
Everyone will love him until he escapes when he’s a FA. He legitimately gives a shit and works his ass off and is all about basketball.

I’ll actually start considering the idea that Phil was just a figurehead while here, and Mills really made all the calls.

Mills was the GM. He had to have some power over personnel decisions. For example, it has since become pubic that it was Mills that gave Lee his contract. So who knows how many of the other deals and picks were Phil’s and how many were Mills.

KP, Dotson, and Frank were almost guaranteed to be Gaines/Phil. I read everything Gains says. I know what he likes. They fit his profile. Willy was reported as scouted by Mills, but they were probably all on board with bringing in KP’s friend because Gaines scouted him also. I would guess that Kornet is also Gaines, but I’m less sure on that one.

It would not shock me if Gaines got the boot later because he was the one that pushed hard for Frank (who then disappointed. Mills wanted Dennis Smith Jr and they all supposedly considered Mitchell. Based on commentary Gaines has made since I think he wanted someone other than Knox, but was on board with Trier and Robinson. He likes those two and still likes Frank and Dotson.

As far as I am concerned Mills was plotting to take over from Phil from the start.

Lol Phil Jackson leaks literally anything if he thinks it makes him look 1% less dumb. If he had anything but final say over basketball decisions (and all the contemporaneous reporting indicated he very much had that), we would’ve found out 10 minutes after he was fired.

But I know, Phil, like Frank, has never actually failed at anything. He has however been failed by Steve Mills, Carmelo Anthony, Joakim Noah, Courtney Lee, Derrick Rose, Frank Ntilikina, Arron Afflalo, Derrick Williams, Kevin Seraphin, Lamar Odom, and of course as has become freshly relevant, Travis Wear.

I forgot about Knick Legend Jason Smith, who also betrayed the Zen Master by not living up to his unlimited potential with us.

RJ Barrett and Luka Doncic are closer than you think in similarity. They’re both big playmaking guards who were supremely decorated and successful players before they got to the NBA. We all know the Luka Doncic story, but RJ Barrett was a Consensus All American and got voted the best shooting guard in the NCAA last year (he won the Jerry West Award). He also went undefeated as a senior in high school and dominated the all star circuit that spring. Doncic also has the same weaknesses RJ has (3 point shooting, defense, and free throw shooting), and he had them in Europe if you go back and look at the numbers. Barrett and Doncic are both strong rebounding and passing wings. Barrett’s a better athlete/rebounder and Doncic is a better passer/playmaker. I would not be surprised to see Barrett put up big numbers as a rookie, and he’ll likely be lauded a superstar in the making by December the same way Porzingis was. Barrett doesn’t come with the same injury concerns as Porzingis, and I’m irrationally confident that his free throw shooting and 3 point shooting will be respectable by year 2.

In short, I believe RJ Barrett is a lot more special than he’s given credit for around here. Time will tell who is right and who is wrong, and I cannot wait to see what he does in a Knicks jersey.

If Barrett scores 20 PPG on .530 TS% as a 19-year-old rookie, I will piss my pants with joy. I will soak them through.

I’d need a whole new wardrobe and new furniture to match. I think my sofa might be safe tho.

I really like the early career Tyreke Evan’s comp. The difference is that Evan’s is an asshole who didnt give a shit. So if we start from that baseline I believe RJ can grow into a Paul George type of offensive player minus the crazy good 3 pt shooting of george.

I agree with you Bruno, but the difference is that I think RJ will be a secondary handler unlike Luka who is the primary. I think that will allow him to grow into a primary handler

I have been pondering that plan C. It’s doable. Instead of 2 players at $70M the Knicks should look for 3 players at about $60M. They need a couple of bigs and a reliable veteran point guard. They also need at least one all-star caliber player. If they max out 1 player and then split the next max slot, that would mean a lot at this point. They could fill the bench with solid backups too.

I have been pondering that plan C. It’s doable. Instead of 2 players at $70M the Knicks should look for 3 players at about $60M. They need a couple of bigs and a reliable veteran point guard. They also need at least one all-star caliber player. If they max out 1 player and then split the next max slot, that would mean a lot at this point. They could fill the bench with solid backups too.

Great, so that team should win about 32 games, and then pick 10th in the 2020 draft. Sounds like a solid plan.

I have a better idea: don’t do that.

@182

I think it will be his best role eventually, I was more focused on the comparison between him and Doncic, in that Doncic is a better primary ball handler and playmaker because his handle is so much more advanced.

I don’t think anyone should be compared to Doncic, by the way, simply because of how unique of a player he is and how precocious his skill set is. Very few players, if any, come to the NBA so young and with a skill set so far developed as he did playing as a pro in Spain for years as a teenager. We shouldn’t expect Barrett to be on his level because it’s not really realistic anyway.

What I expect from RJ is mostly that he will be a very good transition player right away, and that he will struggle in half court sets because of his poor shooting and handle. Like I said before, it’s a pick I’m excited for because there are plenty of probable scenarios in which he becomes a good player (if he improves his shooting, or the playmaking or his defense, or any combination of those). Obviously I’d rather have a guy like Zion or Doncic himself who don’t have so much to improve to be good players, but it’s good enough for the position we were in.

Is Jokic a one way player though? The eye test used to say so but the latest metrics complicate that picture. DRPM has him 17th among NBA centers. That’s pretty good. He also had a 4.3 DWS last season, the best of his career.

DRPM is a noisy stat. Eye test is probably more reliable for d. If you think Jokic is even an average defensive 5, may the force be with you. I think he is in the Kanter/Vucevic/KAT class at best.

Speaking of Iggy, I just watched his highlight reel from Michigan. He really does have a great motor and some prolific offensive skills. I look forward to seeing him in summer league.

You mean kinda like Portland schemed for Kanter? Or Houston schemes for Harden?

Great, so that team should win about 32 games, and then pick 10th in the 2020 draft. Sounds like a solid plan.

I have a better idea: don’t do that.

Actually, yes. But I think we can get over 500. We’re not going from last to first overnight. It ain’t happening. Doubling our win total is better than another 17 win season. You can’t buy a championship until you develop a core of good young, cheap, players. We have to hope RJ is a star and has the type of impact Doncic had last year. Add one max next to him and assume that Mitchell Robinson plays no better or worse than the second half of last season. Now you have something.

And Brian, we have a lot of money. I should have done the math. Based on Tommy Beer’s article in Forbes, with a core of
Mitchell Robinson, Kevin Knox, Dennis Smith Jr., Frank Ntilikina, Damyean Dotson, RJ Barrett, Joakim Noah’s $6.44 million cap hit, and the Knicks excercise Allonzo Trier’s option and, five minimum roster charges, the Knicks have apx. $70 million to spend.

I’m thinking that we max out one (either $33M or $27M). We know the top names but there needs to be an all-star: Kyrie, Kemba, Kawhi, Butler are the top of that tier but there are others. Get one.

Assuming we sign a 7-9 year max, the remaining $37 needs to be spread out to fill 3 major positional needs: starting power forward, veteran backup center and veteran point guard. We would need one of them that could shoot 3’s. None of them to suck defensively and a couple need to be thumpers. I would just try to find the best way to fill those holes with that money. The rest of the team is filler.

Done right, with at least one of our younger players developing, we could even have a good team.

DRPM is a noisy stat.

I thought it was an improvement as far as defensive metrics go. Believe it or not, Jokic has been very consistent as far as this stat goes. It has ranked him as the 17th best defensive center in the league the past three straight NBA seasons.

2016-17

2017-18

2018-19