Knicks Morning News (2018.12.08)

According to the Post Frank will be out of the dog box tonight 🙂

I’ll say this much. I’ve been dead against some of the minutes distribution since the Orlando game and I still think we’re gkving out minutes to some guys without a good long term justification. Farfa is also right that there’s a basic minutes squeeze issue if we’re trying to placate Perry over Hez, showcase trade candidates AND develop young guys.

However, if with Frank this is part of Fizdale’s approach to development and he genuinely sees it as a way to extract better performance from Frank, maybe up his aggression a bit then I’m certainly happy to see if that plays out in practice. He does have a rep as a development guy, after all, and the returns on Dot and Mudiay have been positive so far…

Interesting comments from Steve Kerr on the Warriors ranking so low in 3 point attempts this year.

“I don’t care. What I care about is good shots. I want to get really good open shots. Doesn’t matter if they are from 3 or 2. But I want them to be good, in rhythm. I’m not entirely convinced math is everything. I’d rather go 6-for-12 from 2 and have the team take the ball out of the net six times than go 4-for-12 from 3 and have to deal with eight fastbreaks. There’s a reaction to everything. I know as a player, I felt a lot more confident when half my shots when in than a third whether they were from 3 or 2. There’s a rhythm that builds in the game. For me, it’s similar to a football game. The best football teams have a run-pass balance….They keep the defense off balance…..My #1 priority is always an open shot more than a particular kind of shot.”

I love steve kerr but he either isn’t saying anything at all here or is saying something that poorly summarizes the common-sense-nuance he is trying to inject . I mean, sure, there are other relevant factors besides “3 is greater than 2.” And, duh, there is a point at which a 2PA is better than a 3PA. but the nuance cuts both ways.

1. the offensive rebounding rate on 3 point misses is only slightly lower than the offensive rebounding rate on 2 point misses. so when you shoot 4-12 from 3 you generate ~1.77 extra points on your misses versus ~1.44 extra points from 2. the net difference in points per possession (1.147 vs. 1.12) may seem modest but it is probably large compared all other factors he invokes.

2. the percentage of missed three pointers that lead to fast breaks is much lower than conventional wisdom seems to assume, and those transition opportunities have a significantly lower PPP than the average fast break, which is warped by an extremely high PPP from turnovers. before seth partnow went to the bucks he did a series on this, but there is other more recent research that backs it up. the “fast break” difference between 8 missed threes and 6 missed 2s plus two made 2s would be miniscule, much smaller than 2.5 PPP above. in fact, this year teams are actually producing a slightly higher TS% after opponent missed 2s than 3s, both are ~TS of 56%. cf. 55% TS after made FGs, almost no difference (off a steal on the other hand the TS YTD is 64%).

3. on average teams probably generate more turnovers attempting 2s than 3s. this is implicitly hidden in the “6-12” versus “4-12” comparison. the effect might be bigger than #2, although this is not a simple question to quantify, but this is the way the evidence has pointed in recent years.

4. you can believe the rhythm stuff if you want to. if you try to find evidence of it in the data you will struggle mightily.

That is interesting. I think that many underestimate the value of an open shot versus a contested shot

ptmilo @7, thanks, your analysis paints a much more complete picture.

@7

I think it’s very complex. For a fan at my level, I’d rather just look around the NBA and see what’s working for most teams. Taking more 3s seems to be working.

I do know It’s not just whether you take a 2 or 3 that determines the offensive rebound rate and the probability of a fast break. The location and distance of the shot matters also. I remember Phil saying in an interview that certain combinations of mid range shots and offensive rebounds were potent and that eFGg% and TS% could be misleading.

What also probably matters is whether you actually try harder for offensive rebounds on those shots knowing they are more likely to be available (like Phil would) or whether you just get back on defense.

We also know the probability of getting fouled on 2s is higher also (which adds value in terms of getting a FT and getting the other star players off the court).

When it’s all said & done it’s probably closer than it looks.

This is THE problem I always run into analyzing horse racing data for gambling purposes. There are no many overlapping and interrelated factors, if you look at them at a high level you are almost as likely to mislead yourself as you are to find something of real value. You have to dig really deep to very specific circumstances. But then you run into the problem of sample size (or in basketball maybe something it is working with these specific players with this combination of skill sets) .

I’m a big believer in the mental aspect of the game from my experience playing pool and observing that game played at a very high level. But again, it’s a very individual thing. If one guy misses a few shots under pressure it can totally wreck him mentally. He may need a week to get his head on straight. Another guy will hand over the money and come back stronger the next game. There’s no way to measure individual nervous systems, competitiveness, confidence, security, and mental strength without data on THAT player (which is what gamblers observe and use in pool). The high level stats would be garbage.

As I predicted, the Frank benching is likely about development, and not suggestive of anything regarding his future status with the team. It’s in line with what I’ve been saying all along, which is that it’s actually bad for both his development now and for assessing his worth to the process to keep babying him. Because he’s under contract for the next 2 years (we already picked up his option for next year, right?) there is no urgency to make long-term decisions about him right now. There is more urgency with guys like Hez, Mudiay and Vonleh, since those guys are (despite what is being said here) possible pieces going forward or trade bait this year.

The other consideration is that most 3’s are relatively similar in terms of transition defensive positioning, while 2’s vary widely. In other words, lumping all 2’s together is not useful (while there is also probably a modest difference in comparing corner 3’s with other 3’s.) I say this because when a player like Mudiay drives to the rim and gets rejected and then falls down, it generates a 5-on-4 fast break, and the guy he’s supposed to be guarding is probably an efficient 3-pt shooter, so that’s probably a worse situation than a long rebound off of a missed three. It’s just conjecture on my part, but I wonder if the conversation is different if these unfavorable shots in the paint are accounted for…

you’re right on the second part but wrong on the first. the difference between corners threes and arc 3s are ~same as the difference between rim misses and mid range misses. misses at the rim are generally the worst shots when it comes to opponent PPP, almost surely as you say because someone is often caught behind the play. but mid range misses in recent years have barely shown discernible difference from 3pt misses, so this doesn’t really change the overall point that a mid range shot has not been a significantly worse defensive proposition than a long distance shot in recent years.

2016-2018YTD
opp TS after short mid range miss: 56.1%
opp TS after long mid range miss: 55.9%
opp TS after any missed 3: 56.3%
opp TS after any missed 2: 56.7%
opp TS off miss at the rim : 57.3%
opp TS off missed corner 3: 57.0%

interesting numbers milo…I would not have guessed the opponents ts% on those different shot attempt misses to be that close…particularly for misses at the rim, the ts% was surprising …it’s gonna take a moment to wrap my head around that…

you’re a dangerous read sometimes strat…sometimes I get this irrational sense that gambling isn’t really gambling – likes it’s mostly science andhmmmmm math with fairly predictable outcomes 🙂

man, if I had my numbers down – I could be successful betting on stuff…I know it’s not true, but, I get this crazy confidence reading some of your posts…

There is more urgency with guys like Hez, Mudiay and Vonleh, since those guys are (despite what is being said here) possible pieces going forward or trade bait this year.

Who would trade for Hez at 6.5mm for the rest of 2018 or Mudiay at >4mm? People are infatuated by absolute salary numbers, but Hez is 99% overvalued and Mudiay is at least 75% overvalued. Even if Frank is bad, he is a more likely to be a trade target than either of the other two. No one would give up a second round pick for either Hez or Mudiay, I am pretty sure someone would take on Frank’s salary and would give us a second rounder for him.

@17 thanks, interesting stuff. It’s probably even more complicated than the numbers you posted suggest. for example, how does offensive rebounding and shot blocking factor in? How does close game in 4th quarter vs. blowouts factor in? How does it vary from team to team, i.e. how much does coaching (system?) and specific player combinations matter? For example, I remember reading that the KG Celtics did not pursue offensive rebounds off of 3’s and focused on getting back on D.

Still, it’s fascinating that generally speaking, missed corner 3’s and missed shots at the rim are equally likely to generate good outcomes for the opponent, even though they’re the most efficient shots to take.

cheap bastards

http://www.espn.com/womens-college-basketball/story/_/id/25484152/nicole-kornet-former-ucla-bruins-player-free-car-taken-away-status-ex-college-athlete

Stratomatic “If the Knicks trade Frank I’m out”

Sorry, I haven’t been keeping up with the threads lately. But are you saying that you stuck with this team through the Ewing Trade, the McDyess Trade, the Marbury Trade, the Curry Trade, the Randolph Trade, the Anthony Trade, and the Bargnani Trade, but a Frank Ntilikina Trade is the hill you’re ready to die on?

I guess we all have our breaking points, but, wow, that’s like Job saying to God “you’ve taken my wealth, my children, my wife, and my health, which is all cool, but if you take my Brookstone nose-hair trimmer, I’m out!”

I think it’s fair to say that it’s symptomatic of a greater institutional rot if they trade Frank.

Exactly. If they trade for John Wall, max Kemba Walker, or trade guys on rookie contracts then it just shows that we’re gonna be doomed to mediocrity for the next decade. Not because of those moves specifically but that the F.O. still has no idea how to build a team properly.

Sorry, I haven’t been keeping up with the threads lately. But are you saying that you stuck with this team through the Ewing Trade, the McDyess Trade, the Marbury Trade, the Curry Trade, the Randolph Trade, the Anthony Trade, and the Bargnani Trade, but a Frank Ntilikina Trade is the hill you’re ready to die on?

this is a phenomenal idea and everyone should immediately identify the hill they are, in fact, willing to die on. I think john wall might also be my hill, though I count myself an unreliable narrator/forecaster on this topic. I also have a few other hills I can think of:

1. dolan either naming himself GM or bringing back IT
2. kyle o’quinn forming his own team in seattle and giving himself the solid 27 mpg he deserves
3. the knicks winning the lottery this year and trading the pick for almost anything
4. the knicks’ best player being an outspoken trump supporter (sorry for the politics but i do think this would chase me)

I’m not sure doing a Willy-like trade with Frank would be totally it for me, but it would be close. The rumored John Wall trade might be. That would be beyond awful and make me pine for less awful stuff like the Rose trade (at least he was an expiring and no picks were sent out).

I really hope we get to at least see a KP+Mitchrob+Knox+Frank+Trier starting lineup sometime in January or early February. If KP can come back, let’s take a couple of months to look at that and see what happens. It would lose a lot of games, but we might see flashes of a future, esp. with a good 2019 pick and, maybe, a nice free agent (though I’d wait another year on that).

THJ can be sixth man (though I really wish they could trade him) and Dotson and Vonleh get good minutes, too. Maybe Burke, too, if he’s willing to resign on the cheap.

Yeah, not happening.

I mean, I survived the Willy trade so I would survive a Frank one too. I don’t think I would quit the Knicks even if they traded for Wall, as I didn’t as they traded for Melo and I was absolutely sure it wasn’t the right move at the time. I would probably do as I did in the later Melo years post 2013, when I went from watching every game and obsessing over Knicks stuff to just casually watching a few games here and there and watching other teams.

I would probably move on to be a lot more active watching the Kings, as I always liked them in the 90s and early 2000s and I like Fox and Hield, and keep doing what I do generally on league pass already, which is watching players that interest me, mostly Giannis, Jokic, Doncic, Embiid and Gallinari, besides the occasional Lebron / Curry / Leonard game here and there.

The Warriors rank 12th in the league in 3PA. With Curry back that will almost surely go up. They also rank 1st in 3PT% so they can afford to lag behind a bit in attempts.

If they didn’t have such a ridiculous level of talent I’m sure Kerr would be more stringent about optimizing their shot distribution.

Basically what I’m saying is 1) Kerr doesn’t mind keeping guys happy by letting them take the shots they want, because they’re going to win the championship regardless and 2) he was largely bullshitting his way through a question instead of saying the first thing.